Commercial Vehicle Sales Likely to See Modest Growth in FY26: Axis Securities

India's Commercial Vehicle (CV) industry is projected to post modest growth in FY26, according to a recent report from Axis Securities. The report anticipates a low single-digit increase in sales, primarily led by continued strength in the bus segment.

While the broader auto sector saw varied performance in March 2025, the outlook for the upcoming financial year appears “cautiously optimistic”.

Axis Securities points to several factors that may support recovery in related segments, including a rebound in rural demand, fresh product launches, and possible fiscal measures aimed at boosting consumption—such as middle-class tax relief.

For the tractor market, expectations are positive, bolstered by the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD's) forecast of an above-normal monsoon—a key factor that could lift rural sentiment and farm equipment sales.

Also Read: India’s Auto Retail Sales Up 2.95% in April 2025 Amid Festive, Rural Demand: FADA | Republic World

Turning to recent passenger vehicle (PV) performance, April 2025 witnessed a 6–7% year-on-year increase in domestic sales. Brands like Toyota, Mahindra, Kia, and the JSW MG led the charge. Maruti Suzuki also recorded a 4% YoY gain, thanks to a boost in SUV sales and an impressive 79% spike in supplies to other OEMs, despite a minor drop in entry-level car sales.

In contrast, Tata Motors and Hyundai experienced a YoY sales dip of 6% and 12%, respectively. Within the CV segment, overall volumes slipped by 1% YoY and dropped 28% on a monthly basis.

Despite the broader slowdown, VECV, Mahindra, and Maruti bucked the trend, reporting annual growth of 28%, 4%, and 34%, respectively. Meanwhile, Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors saw YoY declines of 7% and 10%.

In the two-wheeler (2W) space, domestic sales declined by 17% YoY in April, largely attributed to a strong base in March. Among OEMs, TVS and Eicher posted modest growth of 8% and 1%, while Bajaj, Hero, and Honda suffered significant declines—13%, 44%, and 12%, respectively.

Export figures told a more upbeat story. TVS, Bajaj, Royal Enfield, and Suzuki reported YoY export growth of 46%, 4%, 55%, and 57%, signaling healthy international demand despite mixed domestic trends.