Cues To Watch Out For Next Week: RBI Policy, FII Trends, Auto Sales & Global Signals In Focus

Stock Market Next week: Indian equity markets remained range-bound for the second consecutive week, with key benchmark indices ending in the red amid volatile trading sessions. Global trade tensions, uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, and the upcoming domestic monetary policy decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) contributed to subdued investor sentiment.

The Nifty closed the week at 24,750.70, while the Sensex settled at 81,451.01, reflecting the consolidation in the absence of a decisive catalyst.

Rollover Data Signals Potential Breakout
Despite the muted action, derivative data suggests growing optimism among traders. Nifty Futures rollover for the May series came in at 79.10%, slightly higher than April’s 79.08% and above the three-month average of 78.09%.

“This marginal increase in rollover activity, especially amid a narrow-range series, reflects traders’ willingness to carry forward their positions, possibly in anticipation of a breakout move. It indicates sustained interest and confidence in the market’s underlying structure, hinting at a potentially more active and volatile June series,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Key Triggers to Watch This Week

RBI Monetary Policy Committee Decision (June 6)
The biggest domestic event next week will be the outcome of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled for June 6. With inflation moderating but growth indicators showing mixed trends, the central bank’s guidance on the interest rate trajectory will be crucial in setting the market tone.

Auto Sales and Macroeconomic Data
The start of the new month brings with it a fresh set of high-frequency economic indicators, particularly auto sales numbers for May.
 

Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) Flows
FIIs turned net sellers to the tune of Rs 6,449.74 crore on Friday, adding pressure to the market. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) stepped in as net buyers, purchasing Rs 9,095.91 crore worth of equities. The trend in FII flows will remain a key determinant of short-term market direction, especially in light of global macro uncertainties.

Read More - Stock Market in June: Will Nifty Break Its Silence After a Dull May?

Technical Outlook: Key Nifty Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, markets are nearing a make-or-break point. 

“In terms of key levels, the zone of 25,050–25,100 will act as immediate resistance for Nifty. A sustained move above 25,100 could open the gates for a sharp rally towards 25,500, followed by 25,700 in the short term. On the flip side, the 24,550–24,500 zone remains a crucial support. If the index slips below 24,500, then the 50-day EMA, currently placed in the 24,150–24,100 range, will act as the next important support,” added Shah.

 

As markets enter a decisive week, the interplay of policy cues, investor flows, and economic data will shape sentiment and potentially end the ongoing consolidation phase. Investors and traders are advised to remain cautious yet nimble, as any surprises from the RBI or the global front could trigger sharp moves in either direction.