India Will Become World’s Third Largest Economy: Ashwini Vaishnaw, Gita Gopinath At WEF 2026 | Davos

India is set to emerge as the world’s third-largest economy within the next few years, with IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath projecting that the milestone could be reached by 2028 or even earlier, provided current growth trends hold.

“Based on current projections, India gets there by 2028, and it can be even sooner than that, depending on how the revision of GDP numbers happens,” Gopinath said during a session at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2026, adding that it would be “very hard to say that India won’t get there” unless something catastrophic occurs.

Union Minister of Railways of India, Ashwini Vaishnaw, speaking on the same panel, said India’s rise is underpinned by a decade of structural transformation and focused execution. “India will definitely become the world’s third-largest economy over the next few years,” he said.

Vaishnaw outlined four pillars supporting growth: public investment in physical, digital, and social infrastructure; inclusive growth; manufacturing and innovation; and simplification. “All these put together with the technology platform, we have created… will make sure that India will see a real growth of 6–8 per cent with moderate 2–4 per cent inflation and nominal growth of 10–13 per cent in the next five years,” he said.

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He added, “Also, the security of the poorest comes as a priority for our Prime Minister and the government, and that has helped us bring out 250 million people from poverty.”

However, Vaishnaw flagged risks emanating from advanced economies. “What’s really a matter of concern on our mind is the global debt, which is there in the rich world,” he said, citing bond market stress in Japan as a warning sign.

On trade, Vaishnaw said India has weathered tariff pressures. “Our producers are finding new markets, and our exports have actually increased despite high tariffs,” he said, adding that India has emerged as “a very good value chain partner for the world.”

Gopinath said India’s key challenge now lies beyond rankings. “The challenge is raising per capita income to higher levels,” she said, pointing to land acquisition hurdles, judicial reforms, labour flexibility, skilling and pollution as areas requiring sustained policy focus.

Industrialist Sunil Bharti Mittal said India is “clearly in a very good spot” but cautioned that intense global competition could test growth momentum even as new trade agreements remain critical.

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