Did Global Markets Enter 2026 With Cautious Optimism? - Key Details

Global financial markets are heading into 2026 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, supported by easing inflation, selective monetary policy support and a powerful investment cycle driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI), according to an Abakkus report. 

The report noted that the global economy is emerging from the post-tightening slowdown of 2025 and transitioning toward a more balanced growth phase. While inflation has moderated across regions, it remains sticky enough to keep central banks cautious. 

Policymakers are expected to shift toward gradual support rather than aggressive easing, with the U.S. Federal Reserve projected to cut rates modestly, the European

Central Bank largely on hold, and Japan continuing its slow normalization, the report noted. 

Global GDP growth in 2026 is projected in the range of 2.7% to 3.4%, led by the United States and supported by fiscal stimulus, AI-related capital expenditure and resilient labor markets. 

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The report further noted that the US growth is expected to remain around 2-2.4%, while China is forecast to grow near 4.5% despite structural challenges. Europe is expected to see modest recovery, with growth of 1-1.5% aided by fiscal expansion and green transition initiatives.

Emerging markets, particularly India and parts of Asia, stand out as key beneficiaries of supply-chain diversification, favorable demographics and accelerating digital adoption. India is projected to remain the fastest-growing major economy, with growth near 6.5%, although elevated valuations are prompting calls for selective positioning, it said. 

Artificial intelligence is widely identified as the dominant macro and market theme for 2026, driving a historic global investment cycle. Heavy spending by U.S. hyperscalers and Asian technology firms is boosting demand for data centers, semiconductors, cloud infrastructure and power generation. 

While AI is seen as a structural productivity driver, brokerages warn of valuation risks, market concentration and uncertain monetization, reinforcing the need for diversified exposure rather than narrow bets on core developers.

Equity markets are expected to remain constructive but increasingly selective. U.S. large-cap technology and quality stocks continue to be favored, alongside European cyclicals and undervalued emerging markets. Fixed income strategies are tilted toward shorter duration, inflation-linked securities, securitized credit and emerging-market debt, as elevated public debt and fiscal deficits limit the scope for aggressive easing.

Private markets are gaining prominence as a core portfolio allocation, with opportunities in private equity buyouts, infrastructure linked to energy transition, and select real assets. Commodities, particularly gold, are viewed as important diversifiers amid geopolitical risks, persistent inflation concerns and higher asset correlations.

Notably, the report highlighted that the US tariffs, now at their highest levels in decades, continue to reshape global trade flows. While their near-term economic impact has been muted, delayed effects are expected to push U.S. inflation higher by mid-2026 as exporters absorb fewer costs. 

Ongoing geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, high sovereign debt and uneven AI monetization are identified as major downside risks.