Economic Survey 2025 Forecasts India’s GDP Growth Of 6.3-6.8% For FY26

India's Economic Survey 2025, presented today in Parliament by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman , outlines a cautiously optimistic forecast for the country's economic growth in the fiscal year 2025-26.

The survey projects India's real GDP growth to range between 6.3% to 6.8%, underpinned by resilient domestic economic fundamentals and strategic fiscal management.
Economic Fundamentals Remain Robust
Quoting from the Economic Survey, "The fundamentals of the domestic economy remain robust, with a strong external account, calibrated fiscal consolidation and stable private consumption. On balance of these considerations, we expect that the growth in FY26 would be between 6.3 and 6.8 per cent."

Recent Growth Trends and Projections
Earlier in January, the government's advance estimate placed India's growth rate for FY24 at 6.4%, marking a four-year low.

Factors such as reduced investments and subdued manufacturing activities contributed to the subdued growth of 5.4% in the second quarter of FY25. Reflecting on these trends, the RBI adjusted its growth forecast from 7.2% to 6.6% in its recent monetary policy meeting.

Comparative Outlooks: IMF and Moody's Assessments
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently projected India's growth rate for both FY25 and FY26 at 6.5%, slightly below the RBI's adjusted forecast. Similarly, Moody's Analytics projected a growth rate of 7% for FY25, signaling a varied sentiment among global economic institutions regarding India's economic trajectory.

Inflation Outlook and Monetary Policy Adjustments
Regarding inflation, the RBI revised its outlook to 4.8% in its latest monetary policy meeting, up from the earlier projection of 4.5%. This adjustment reflects ongoing efforts to balance economic growth with inflationary pressures amidst global economic shifts.

The Economic Survey's findings are pivotal as they set the stage for the upcoming Union Budget , scheduled to be presented on February 1. With economic growth projections guiding fiscal policy decisions, stakeholders await further insights into the government's strategic initiatives and financial allocations aimed at sustaining growth momentum.