Will Gold Touch Rs 1.5 Lakh This Dhanteras? Experts Decode Festive Demand & Global Trends

Harsh Goenka, Chairman of RPG Enterprises, recently expressed a compelling perspective on gold’s value appreciation, in an X post, noting that 1 kg of gold equated to a Maruti 800 in 1990, an Esteem in 2000, an Innova in 2005, a Fortuner in 2010, a BMW in 2019, and a Land Rover in 2025. His advice? Hold onto gold, as it could match a Rolls Royce by 2030 or a private jet by 2040.

This vivid analogy highlights gold’s enduring profitability, outpacing many assets amid economic shifts and soaring prices.

The Historical Rally: Gold’s Journey in India

Gold's journey in India reflects a story of steady growth intertwined with cultural significance and global influences.

Before independence, prices remained stable under the gold standard, serving as a reliable store of wealth. Post-1947, regulations on imports sparked gradual increases, aligning with the nation's economic policies.

The 1991 liberalisation opened markets, boosting imports and demand, leading to sharper rises. By the 2000s, global events like China's growth and the 2008 financial crisis propelled international surges, which echoed in India.

Why Gold Prices Are Soaring?

In India, prices have exceeded Rs 1.23 lakh per 10 grams, surpassing $4,100 per ounce, driven by a 45% year-on-year surge.

Several factors fuel this demand, especially during Dhanteras, the auspicious start to Diwali when gold purchases symbolise prosperity. Seasonal trends from festivals and weddings create a demand spike, often elevating prices.

Exchange rate fluctuations play a key role; a weaker rupee against the dollar makes imports costlier, pushing local rates higher.

Global trends, including geopolitical tensions and central bank accumulations, add support.

Central banks worldwide are diversifying reserves away from the dollar, hitting multi-decade highs in purchases.

Expert's Views on the Gold Rush

Tejas Shigrekar, Chief Technical Research Analyst at Angel One, emphasises the significance of these drivers in forecasts. "In forecasting, these factors are highly significant. Cultural demand ensures a baseline surge, while macroeconomic triggers amplify momentum," he says.

He notes recent price jumps following U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and tighter export controls, reigniting trade tensions.

Global economic conditions further amplify the impact. Persistent inflation and currency volatility are reshaping investor sentiments, with core inflation in India rising despite softer headline figures.

Shigrekar adds, "Global inflation and currency volatility are not just influencing gold prices, now reshaping investor sentiments and behavior." Lower interest rates enhance gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, while high rates might curb it.

Consumer and investor behavior is evolving this Dhanteras. There's a shift from physical gold to financial options like ETFs, sovereign bonds, and digital platforms.

Expert's Take on Shifting Trends: From Physical Gold to Financial Instruments

Shigrekar observes, "This Dhanteras, a noticeable shift in consumer and investor behavior is emerging: a transition from traditional physical gold buying to financial gold instruments."

Accumulation occurs at breakout levels, fueled by fear of missing out (FOMO), inflation hedging, and festive sentiment. On technical charts, gold's monthly breakout above Rs 1.23 lakh, with rising volumes and RSI over 70, indicates sustained demand.

Will Gold Hit Rs 1.5 Lakh This Dhanteras?

Will gold hit Rs 1.5 lakh this Dhanteras? Experts suggest it's unlikely without major shocks like a currency crisis or escalated geopolitics. Near-term ranges hover between Rs 1.20 lakh and Rs 1.30 lakh per 10 grams, with some eyeing Rs 1.26 lakh to Rs 1.28 lakh.

However, momentum could push it to Rs 1.50 lakh by early or mid-2026 if trends persist, supported by rate cuts, weakening growth, and a softer dollar. In India, festive demand, rupee dynamics, and import duties will bolster local prices.

Also Read: IMF Upgrades India’s FY26 Growth Outlook to 6.6%: Five Key Factors

Is Gold a Profitable Investment? What Buyers Should Expect

For buyers, gold remains a profitable long-term hedge against uncertainty, as Goenka's tweet illustrates. Expect continued strength through the season, but brace for post-Diwali corrections from profit-taking.

Shigrekar advises tactical allocation via systematic investment plans (SIPs) and ETFs to average costs, especially as sentiments shift from dip-waiting to proactive entries.

Looking to 2026, potential rate reductions and economic stabilisation might favor riskier assets, but gold's role as a safe haven endures, embodying heritage and financial security.

Investors should weigh these trends, viewing gold not just as a festive buy but as a resilient asset in volatile times.