Gold Prices to Hit ₹1 Lakh? ICICI Report Predicts Stunning Surge by Late 2025

Indian gold buyers may need to brace for record-high prices in the second half of 2025. A new report by ICICI Bank Global Markets forecasts that local gold prices could soar to the psychologically significant ₹1 lakh per 10 grams mark, fueled by currency weakness and robust investment demand despite global headwinds.

Currently hovering in the ₹96,500–₹98,500 range, domestic gold prices are expected to maintain an upward bias, with the report projecting a shift into the ₹98,500–₹100,000 band in H2 2025.

“Local gold prices are expected to continue trading with an upside bias, moving from a near-term range of ₹96,500 to ₹98,500 per ten grams to ₹100,000 per ten grams in H2 2025,” the report stated.

The upward trend comes even as gold imports have declined sequentially, indicating price-sensitive demand. Imports fell to USD 2.5 billion in May from USD 3.1 billion in April. However, investment demand remains strong. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) shows a net inflow of ₹2.92 billion into gold ETFs in May after two straight months of outflows, signaling sustained investor appetite.

Globally, gold’s bull run has cooled in recent months, with prices flattening as safe-haven demand eased. A key reason is the ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which boosted risk sentiment and reduced demand for gold. 

Simultaneously, expectations that the threat of a new trade war may be receding have calmed markets. The US has already finalized trade deals with the UK and Vietnam, and talks with Japan, India, and the EU are progressing, while a US–China framework deal is expected by August.

Despite these factors, global investment demand for gold remains resilient. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from 930 tonnes on June 1 to 948 tonnes on July 1. Meanwhile, speculative net long positions rose by roughly 13,000 lots last month, underlining confidence in gold’s long-term appeal.

ICICI’s forecast suggests that while geopolitical easing may cap runaway spikes, India’s gold prices are still poised for a historic climb toward ₹1 lakh, keeping the precious metal firmly in investor focus for the rest of 2025.

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