HAL Share Price Today: Tejas Crash Fallout — Is the Stock Headed for a Breakdown or a Big Rebound?

Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) is likely to see investor caution today, with analysts expecting the stock to remain under pressure following a Tejas fighter jet crash at the Dubai Air Show.

Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, said HAL remains a structurally strong stock within the broader defence rally, but near-term weakness cannot be ruled out.

“Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. HAL remains structurally strong within the broader bull run in defence stocks, supported by the government’s sustained thrust on defence indigenisation and rising strategic allocations to the sector.”

She added that defence stocks saw a sharp rally through 2024, further boosted during Operation Sindoor, which triggered a flight to safety within defence-linked names.
However, she noted that the crash could weigh temporarily on sentiment: “The recent accident involving a HAL-manufactured Tejas aircraft during an aerial display at the Dubai Air Show may lead to short-term weakness, even though the event is likely to be viewed as an isolated occurrence with limited long-lasting impact.”

HAL Share Price Target
Sachdeva highlighted that HAL is currently in a prolonged consolidation phase on the weekly charts.
“HAL has been trading within a broad symmetrical triangle pattern, oscillating between Rs 4,150 and Rs 5,150 for months, reflecting volatility compression ahead of a major breakout,” she said.

She pointed out that the stock is now testing resistance near Rs 5,000, and slipping below its 20- and 50-day EMAs indicates near-term weakness.
“HAL may retest Rs 4,300, the level where it formed a double bottom in September 2025, before attempting a fresh upward move.”
On the upside: “A decisive breakout above Rs 5,000 would open the door for a sharp rally toward Rs 5,600 and subsequently Rs 6,000. Conversely, a breach below Rs 4,300 may trigger a deeper correction.”

HAL Share Price Today: Stock Already Under Pressure
HAL shares closed nearly 3% lower at Rs 4,593 on Friday, marking the third straight session of losses. The Tejas crash was reported after market hours, and the stock is expected to react when markets open.

Tejas Crash: What Happened
The Tejas fighter jet crashed during a manoeuvre at the Dubai Air Show on November 21. The single-seat LCA plunged to the ground and burst into flames. Thick smoke was seen above Al Maktoum International Airport.

The IAF confirmed the pilot’s death: “The pilot sustained fatal injuries in the accident… A court of inquiry is being constituted to ascertain the cause of the accident,” the IAF said.
This is the second Tejas-related incident in under two years. The previous crash occurred in March 2024 in Rajasthan’s Jaisalmer.

About the Tejas Aircraft
Tejas is a single-engine, 4.5-generation multirole aircraft designed by the Aeronautical Development Agency (ADA) and manufactured by HAL. It is a central part of India’s indigenous defence programme.
 

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Long-Term View Remains Positive
Sachdeva concluded that HAL’s fundamentals remain solid: “The company’s strong production capabilities, overhauling expertise, and continued strategic investments reinforce its leadership in India’s aerospace ecosystem. Any short-term dip is likely to be an opportunity within an otherwise resilient long-term trend.”