ICICI Bank Slashes 2025 Brent Crude Forecast to $60–$70 Amid Weak Demand

Crude oil prices are expected to trade with a downward bias throughout 2025, according to a new report by ICICI Bank. The bank has significantly lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for the year, citing a combination of rising global supply and subdued demand. Brent prices are now projected to remain in the range of $60 to $70 per barrel, with a potential dip to as low as $55 per barrel if bearish trends persist.

This marks a substantial downward revision from ICICI Bank’s previous forecast of $65 to $80 per barrel. The bank now estimates that the average price of Brent crude in 2025 will be around $65, compared to an earlier projection of $72 per barrel.
The primary driver behind this revised outlook is an anticipated net supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) over the course of the year. This surplus stems from a combination of sluggish global demand growth and increased oil production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries. The report notes that this marks a clear transition from the conditions seen in 2024, when the market was grappling with a supply deficit during the same period.

ICICI Bank highlights that historically, a surplus in global oil supply tends to exert downward pressure on prices, and early data from March and April 2025 already points to this trend taking shape. The bank warns that unless there is a significant geopolitical disruption—such as tensions escalating in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran—or a strong demand recovery driven by Chinese economic stimulus, oil prices are unlikely to rebound meaningfully.
“In the absence of major supply shocks or demand accelerators, crude prices are expected to remain subdued for the rest of the year,” the report stated.

With global oil markets shifting into a phase of oversupply and demand staying weak, ICICI Bank believes the crude oil market is entering a transitional phase, and 2025 could witness persistently low oil prices unless the balance shifts significantly. The bank's assessment underscores growing concerns among analysts about a prolonged period of pressure in the energy sector.

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