ICRA Pegs India’s Q4 GDP at 6.9%, Trails NSO’s 7.6% Estimate

India’s economic growth in the final quarter of FY25 may come in softer than expected, according to fresh estimates by rating agency ICRA. The agency projects GDP growth at 6.9% for the January–March 2025 quarter (Q4 FY25), significantly lower than the National Statistical Office’s (NSO) implicit estimate of 7.6% for the same period. The official numbers are due for release on May 30.

If ICRA’s forecast holds, it would still mark an improvement over the 6.2% GDP growth in Q3, but it suggests a widening gap between private estimates and government projections. India’s quarterly GDP growth has been mixed throughout the year: 6.7% in Q1, 5.6% in Q2, and 6.2% in Q3, reflecting volatility amid global and domestic challenges.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head of Research at ICRA, said the last quarter of FY25 was marked by uneven trends in private consumption and investment, with the latter partly constrained by uncertainty around tariffs. “Unless the earlier quarter data (Q1–Q3) undergoes material revision, we expect a full-year GDP growth of 6.3% for FY25,” Nayar noted. That’s a sharp drop from the 9.2% growth in FY24, and if realized, would point to a cooling in India’s economic momentum.

The NSO’s second advance estimate and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) both maintain a 6.5% full-year GDP projection for FY25. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance, in its March Monthly Economic Review, emphasized that India’s economic resilience is underpinned by strong performance in agriculture and services, along with steady growth in private consumption and core exports.

India’s GDP expanded 9.2% in FY24, maintaining its status as the fastest-growing major economy. This followed growth of 7.2% in FY23 and 8.7% in FY22, marking a strong post-pandemic recovery.

All eyes are now on May 30, when the NSO will release both the Q4 data and provisional annual estimates. 

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