'If This Turns Kinetic, Markets Will Crack': Market Expert on Kashmir Terror Attack

The recent terror attack in Kashmir — which claimed the lives of 26 civilians — has not only deepened national grief but also added a fresh layer of geopolitical risk to an already volatile global environment. Experts believe that the ramifications may soon be felt on Dalal Street, especially if the conflict escalates.

“This is a volatile moment in an already volatile world,” says Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura. “If things flare up further, especially with the India-Pakistan dynamic, or if the situation turns kinetic, the markets will likely react negatively.”

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While Pakistan has historically maintained plausible deniability in such attacks, Bolinjkar suggests this time it feels more coordinated—possibly with the involvement of a larger axis. “It’s increasingly looking like a proxy. And if you connect recent global developments, China’s shadow may also be at play,” he adds.

Bolinjkar points to recent strategic moves — including India’s deepening ties with the U.S. and its attractiveness as a manufacturing hub — as reasons why some hostile players might want to stir unrest. “China’s veiled warnings, Bangladesh instability, and internal disruptions in India all seem to be adding up to a broader attempt to paint India as geopolitically risky,” he says.

 

What About the Markets?

Despite a nearly 2,000-point rally in the Nifty, markets are in a consolidation phase. Bolinjkar says, “Unless there’s a military retaliation or border escalation, the current trend might hold. But if it gets kinetic, expect a pullback.”
He notes that while export stocks like IT and pharma are holding strong, banking is under pressure. Additionally, the rupee has depreciated—largely due to a weakening dollar, but geopolitical jitters could flip that.

Before the attack, Indian markets were riding a strong wave of optimism. Domestic retail participation was high, global liquidity was supportive, and India’s positioning as a China+1 alternative had fueled bullishness. However, the attack introduces a new variable that could rattle investor confidence, especially foreign institutional flows. “There’s a lot of global interest in India right now. But if the narrative becomes ‘India is unstable,’ it could change the game,” Bolinjkar warns.