India Races Ahead Of Japan In GDP Rankings, Q4 Growth Pegged At 7% – Report

India has officially overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world, according to BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO of NITI Aayog, who cited data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

“We are the fourth largest economy as I speak. We are a $4 trillion economy as I speak, and this is not my data. This is IMF data. India today is larger than Japan. It's only the United States, China, and Germany which are larger,” Subrahmanyam declared during a press conference at the 10th NITI Aayog Governing Council Meeting.

Q4 FY25 Growth to Accelerate to 7%: Union Bank of India
Amid the global recognition, India’s near-term economic performance also looks upbeat. According to Union Bank of India’s (UBI) latest economic report, India’s GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 7.0% in Q4 FY25, up from 6.2% in Q3.

However, the full-year FY25 GDP estimate has been revised downward to 6.3%, from the earlier 6.5%. The report attributes this to a mixed performance across high-frequency indicators and external macroeconomic pressures.
 

Private Sector Momentum and GVA Recovery
UBI expects Gross Value Added (GVA) growth to improve to 6.7% in Q4, compared to 6.2% in Q3. Particularly, private sector-led GVA (excluding agriculture and government) is forecast to see a sharp recovery.

“Our heatmap of high-frequency indicators shows a mixed picture even as our economic activity index signalled a mild upward bias,” the report stated. “The latter tracks well with GVA ex-agri & government, a metric of private sector activity, and hence we see it showing a pickup to 6.8% in Q4 from 5.9% in Q3 FY25.”

Read More - 4th Largest Economy: These are Powerful Sectors Driving India’s Growth

Rural Demand, Mahakumbh Boost Economic Momentum
Citing the RBI’s GDP nowcast at 6.6% for Q4 FY25, UBI highlighted continued improvement in domestic momentum, especially in the second half of FY25.
The report points to several growth drivers, including a revival in rural demand, government expenditure, and massive public events like the Mahakumbh, which may have contributed significantly to nominal GDP.

“Apart from a likely revival in rural demand and a sustained pickup in government spending, other factors like the organisation of mass religious gatherings via the Mahakumbh (₹2–3 lakh crore nominal growth impact as per media reports) may have played a key role in supporting growth recovery,” the UBI report noted.

India’s Growth Stands Out Amid Global Slowdown
While the global economy is projected to grow at just 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, India’s momentum continues to outperform.

With its $4 trillion economy milestone and robust quarterly growth outlook, India is not only reshaping its position globally but also laying the groundwork for its Viksit Bharat 2047 vision—emerging as a formidable economic powerhouse in the decades ahead.

(With Inputs From ANI)