Indian Equities Seen Gaining Momentum Over Medium Term As Earnings Cycle Broadens: Report

The domestic equities are expected to deliver a resilient performance over the medium term of 6-24 months, supported by a broad-based recovery in earnings, strong domestic demand and continued policy support, according to a report by PL Capital.

The report highlighted that the earnings cycle is gradually broadening, with consumption, investment and exports showing signs of recovery at the same time. This simultaneous improvement across key growth drivers is expected to strengthen the overall market outlook and create multi-sector momentum over the coming quarters.

It stated, “Earnings cycle broadens as consumption, investment and exports recover simultaneously. Capex cycle plus government spending creates multi-sector momentum.”

It noted that the ongoing capital expenditure cycle, combined with sustained government spending, is likely to support growth across industries.

Increased public investment continues to crowd in private sector participation, improving business confidence and capacity expansion.

As a result, earnings visibility is improving beyond a narrow set of sectors, offering wider participation in the market rally.

However, the report also flagged certain risks that could influence market performance during this period. Persistently high inflation or delays in interest rate cuts may impact the cost of capital and weigh on market valuations.

In addition, a global economic slowdown or sharp swings in commodity prices could affect export-linked sectors, potentially creating short-term volatility.

Despite these risks, the report believes Indian equities remain well-positioned due to strong domestic fundamentals. The report emphasised that India continues to stand out amid global headwinds, supported by robust internal demand, ongoing policy reforms and improving macroeconomic indicators.

These factors are expected to provide sustainable growth visibility over the next three to five years.

On strategy, the report recommended a balanced and risk-aware approach. For flexi-cap investors, PL Capital suggested a large-cap biased active fund strategy, with a concentrated large-cap core complemented by a tactical allocation to select mid-cap stocks.

This approach aims to capture the benefits of a broadening earnings recovery while limiting downside risks through stable large-cap exposure.

In addition, the report highlighted the relevance of a balanced advantage strategy with a growth-first orientation. Such a dynamic equity allocation framework systematically increases equity exposure during constructive market and earnings phases, while reducing risk during periods of heightened volatility.

Overall, PL Capital concluded that Indian equities are likely to remain resilient in the medium term, driven by a favourable domestic growth environment and supportive policy backdrop, even as global uncertainties persist.