Stock Market Next Week: Will Nifty Hit 25,500 Next Week? Experts Decode Key Triggers and Sectoral Moves

Last week ended on a positive note for Indian equities. The benchmark indices surged, with the Sensex rising by 769 points and Nifty closing above the 24,850 mark. Among the top gainers were PowerGrid, ITC, Bajaj Finserv, and Eicher Motors.

Sector-wise, Nifty FMCG led the rally with a 1.6% gain, followed by Nifty Private Bank and Nifty IT, each rising by 1%. Nifty Metal and Nifty PSU Bank added 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, while Nifty Pharma declined by 0.4%.

Despite the bullish close, the road ahead is fraught with global uncertainties and technical resistance levels, say market experts.

Global Cues and FII Selling Are Pressuring Nifty

Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, explained that while the week ended with optimism, markets witnessed a period of volatility due to macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

“Nifty slipped lower by around 0.67%. It could not sustain above the 25,000 level, mainly due to concerns about rising debt levels in the US,” she said.

The recent US House bill that includes spending and tax cuts has sparked fears of a $3.8 trillion surge in US debt over the next decade. The ripple effect was visible globally.

“This led to a sharp surge in US Treasury yields and a sell-off across global and emerging markets,” Sachdeva added. “Foreign investors turned net sellers last week, which further impacted our markets.”

Sachdeva highlighted several critical cues for the upcoming week:

• Fed Chair’s speech on Monday, expected to outline interest rate trajectory.
• Renewed trade war concerns between the US and EU.
• Rising COVID-19 cases, adding to uncertainty.
• The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which may influence Fed policy.

Despite the volatility, she believes the market has strong support at 24,400–24,500.

“If that zone is breached, Nifty may fall towards 24,000. But as long as it holds 24,000 on a weekly closing basis, we expect buying to return at lower levels,” she said.

“20-day EMA Is the Market’s Springboard”

Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, maintained a bullish bias on Nifty.

“In a rising market, the 20-day EMA isn’t a floor—it’s a springboard. The recent pullback found support at the 20-day EMA, reaffirming the uptrend,” said Shah.

He emphasized that Nifty and most frontline indices are aligning well with this bullish structure.

“As long as Nifty stays above the 24,500–24,550 zone, any dip should be considered a buying opportunity. The trend remains upward,” he said.

According to Shah, Nifty faces resistance at 24,950–25,000. A decisive close above 25,000 could open the gates to 25,300, and possibly 25,500. If weakness emerges, support at 24,500–24,550 should hold.

Bank Nifty: Breakout Imminen

Sudeep Shah also offered a bullish outlook for Bank Nifty, which has been consolidating for weeks.

“Bank Nifty is on the verge of a breakout. It found support at its 20-day EMA and resumed its upward trend. The daily RSI moving towards 60 confirms rising bullish sentiment,” Shah explained.

He also mentioned the relative strength of Bank Nifty versus Nifty, indicating outperformance.
“Heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and Axis Bank are nearing breakout levels. Their synchronized movement adds conviction to a broader rally.”

Key levels to track:

Resistance: 55,800. A move above this can push the index to 56,500, and then 57,200.
Support: 54,700–54,800 zone.

FIIs Dump Over ₹11,500 Crore Amid Global Headwinds

Last week saw aggressive selling by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs).
Total FII outflow: Rs 11,591 crore
Biggest single-day outflow: Rs 10,000 crore on Tuesday

Futures contracts: Short positions increased, with the long-short ratio falling to 33% from 42%

Concerns driving this bearish stance include:

• Trade war re-escalation
• Rising bond yields in the US and Japan
• Reports of potential Israeli strikes on Iran
• Mild increase in COVID-19 cases globally.

Despite this, Indian domestic investors and technical trends are keeping the broader market structure positive.

Nifty Has Resumed Its Upmove

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, highlighted the resilience shown by the Nifty.

“Nifty held on to the support zone of 24,450–24,500 and resumed its upmove towards 25,000–25,100, i.e., the upper end of the broad trading range,” said Gedia.

“The hourly momentum indicator has triggered a positive crossover and prices are now sustaining above key hourly moving averages. This supports the bullish outlook.”

He believes the support base has now shifted higher to 24,700–24,650, further strengthening the case for upward movement.

Sectoral Analysis: Where Is the Action Next Week?

The Nifty Metal index is trading above its short- and long-term moving averages.

The Nifty India Defence index hit a new high but now shows negative divergence in RSI.

“Price is making higher highs, but RSI is printing lower highs—a classic red flag,” Shah warned.

He also added that the Nifty Pharma index has been range-bound between 22,000–22,100 on the upside and 20,600–20,700 on the downside.

Stocks to Watch

According to Shah, the following stocks are poised for strong short-term moves:
Axis Bank
Icici Prudential Life Insurance Comp 
BHEL
Jio Fin
Hindustan Copper

Buy on Dips, But Watch the Triggers

The coming week holds promise for the bulls—but not without risks. Experts advise watching technical support zones, Fed commentary, tariff news, and FII flows closely.

If Nifty breaches 25,000 decisively, we could see 25,500 soon. If it fails to hold 24,500, 24,000 may be tested. The underlying tone, however, remains constructive as long as global shocks don’t derail sentiment.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this article are purely informational and Republic Media Network does not vouch for, promote or endorse any opinions stated by any third party. Stock market and Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks and readers are advised to seek expert advice before investing in stocks, derivatives and Mutual Funds