Nifty Prediction Next Week: Will Markets Fall Below 23,800 Amid India-Pakistan Tensions?

After a stellar rally in April, the Indian stock market is expected to enter a phase of consolidation during the week of April 28 to May 2. Analysts project that the Nifty 50 will likely trade between 23,700 and 24,200, with rising India-Pakistan tensions and key global economic data keeping investors cautious.

"After the stellar rally that we have seen in the month of April, domestic benchmark index Nifty is facing a lot of resistance at the 24,350 mark, from where we have seen some profit booking setting in," said Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet.

She added, "The near-term support is pegged at the 23,800 mark. A breach of that would lead to an extended sell-off towards the 23,400 mark."

Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, also predicts rangebound action, saying, “We expect the Nifty to consolidate in the range of 23,700 – 24,200 from a short-term perspective. Sector rotation and stock-specific action are likely during this phase.”

Key Resistance and Support Levels
The market faces stiff resistance at the 24,150–24,200 zone, while critical support lies between 23,747 and 23,400. Analysts warn that if geopolitical tensions escalate further or the 23,800 mark is breached, Nifty could slip sharply towards 23,400 levels.
 

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"In case 23,800 mark is breached, especially if a war-type situation unfolds, we are likely to see lower levels around 23,400," Sachdeva emphasized. However, breaching the higher resistance of 24,350 could push Nifty towards 24,800, though that seems unlikely in the current environment.

Global and Domestic Triggers
Apart from rising geopolitical risks, the upcoming week will be packed with major global economic data, which could heavily influence market sentiment. Key releases include the US Q1 GDP data, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, and the April non-farm payrolls report.

The recent rebound in the US dollar index, after the US President's favourable remarks towards the Fed Chair, is also adding pressure on Indian equities.

‘There are a lot of cues to watch out for next week. The dollar index has seen a sharp rebound from lower levels after it slipped to a three-year low below the 98 mark. US President's favourable tone towards Fed chair has led to a rebound in the dollar index, which is weighing on the Indian assets. Apart from that, we have a lot of economic data which is lined up next week. We have US Q1 GDP data,’ noted Sachdeva.

Sectoral Outlook
Sector-specific moves are expected to dominate next week's trading action. IT, Auto, and FMCG sectors are likely to see positive momentum, according to Gedia, while Realty and Oil & Gas sectors may underperform.

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Recap: Markets Drop Amid Tensions
On Friday, April 25, the Indian stock markets closed sharply lower amid fresh fears of India-Pakistan conflict. The BSE Sensex fell 588.90 points to close at 79,212.53, a drop of 0.74%, while the Nifty 50 declined 207.35 points or 0.86% to 24,039.35.

Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and UltraTech Cement were among the few gainers. In contrast, heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, ITC Limited, and Maruti Suzuki dragged the market down, with Maruti Suzuki losing 2.09% and Tata Motors dropping 2.01%.

The rupee weakened, and the 10-year benchmark bond yield rose by 4 basis points, reflecting the cautious mood among investors.

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