Operation Sindoor: Will Stock Market BSE Sensex, Nifty50 Fall Today? Here's What Experts Say

Stock market today is bracing for a volatile start as India’s precision air strikes under Operation Sindoor late Tuesday night inject a fresh dose of geopolitical tension into investor sentiment.

As of 8:25 AM, Gift Nifty is trading at 24,354, up 127.50 points or 0.53%.

While some market voices believe the assertive retaliation may inspire confidence, others are wary of short-term selling if the conflict escalates.

India's military action comes as a direct response to the April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, where Pakistan -backed terrorists brutally killed 26 Indian tourists. The Indian Air Force, in a late-night operation, destroyed nine terrorist hideouts in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), reportedly targeting camps linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen.

Operation Sindoor: A Befitting Reply Sparks Market Uncertainty
In a strong statement, the Ministry of Defence confirmed:
“A little while ago, the Indian Armed Forces launched OPERATION SINDOOR, hitting terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir from where terrorist attacks against India have been planned and directed.”

The Indian Army also posted on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), stating: “Justice is served, Jai Hind.”

The market's reaction to such military operations has historically been sharp but short-lived, say experts, and the key to understanding today’s opening lies in balancing geopolitical tension with economic optimism.

"Geopolitical Risk Crystallised, Expect Negative Gap-Down Opening"
Market veteran Ajay Bagga explained how such geopolitical developments usually impact Indian equities: "The geopolitical risk that was hanging over the Indian markets has got crystallised today with the Indian strikes on PoK and Pakistan-based terror camps. Indian markets will open with a negative gap as we saw when the Uri and Balakot strike news was announced."

He added:"The future impact on the market will depend on whether this strike remains contained to today or if it expands. Geopolitical risk remains elevated and we could see some more selling in the Indian markets."

Bagga believes past patterns — from Kargil to Uri and Balakot — show that while market reactions to such events are often immediate, they rarely last beyond a few sessions.

“Market May Take It Positively”
On a more optimistic note, Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, sees the market potentially absorbing the event positively: "This should be treated as a positive trigger. We were looking forward to a measured response to the terrorist attacks in Pahalgam, and this should help restore investor confidence, at least temporarily."

However, she also acknowledged near-term volatility and laid out technical levels for Nifty: "There is a near-term support at 24,200 levels. In case that holds, we are likely to see a renewed wave of buying. But if 24,200 is breached, we may see the domestic benchmark index slipping towards 23,850 odd levels."

How Global and Domestic Cues Stack Up
Apart from geopolitical concerns, other factors are influencing the stock market today: Global cues are largely positive.

Reports of a US-China trade summit in Switzerland and China’s announcement of fresh economic stimulus (rate cuts and reserve ratio reduction) are helping support global equities.

‘Global cues are positive as there are reports of a US China summit on trade negotiations in Switzerland. India announced the signing of a trade agreement with the UK . US futures are up on the US China talks news .China has announced further policy easing, it will cut key rates by 10 points, bank reserve requirement by 50 points in bid to boost economy,’ Bagga Added.

‘However China is likely to engage in talks with the US which may lead to deescalation of trade tensions and boost the sentiments for domestic markets,’ Sachdeva said. 

India-UK Trade Deal Progress
India has also reportedly signed a trade agreement with the UK, which could be a tailwind for export-oriented sectors.

All Eyes on the Fed
Investors are also watching the US Federal Reserve meeting later today. Sachdeva notes that:

‘Alongside this, market would look forward to the Fed meeting which is lined up today. We do not expect a rate cut, but yes, the tone of the Fed chair is going to be very important when Trump has been pressurizing the Fed chair to cut rates. In case there is a hint of a rate cut, that is going to be a positive trigger and that could weigh further on the dollar index and would favor the Indian assets,’ Sachdeva said.

“All three major US indices closed lower on Tuesday as lingering trade concerns overshadowed recent gains. The Dow shed 0.95%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.77%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.88%,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Brent Crude witnessed a pullback on Tuesday and ended the session at $61.92 with a gain of 2.89%. Going forward, $60.20-60 will act as immediate support, with $62.70-63 remaining a crucial hurdle.

‘The US Dollar Index declined for a second straight session. The zone of 100.40-100.60 is expected to act as an immediate hurdle, while on the downside, the 99-98.80 range will serve as a crucial support zone,’ Shah added.

Tuesday’s Market Recap: Weak Close Ahead of the Strike
Before the announcement of Operation Sindoor, Indian benchmarks ended lower on Tuesday:
BSE Sensex closed at 80,641.07, down by 155.77 points or 0.19%.
Nifty 50 ended at 24,379.60, slipping 81.55 points or 0.33%.
16 Nifty stocks advanced
34 declined

‘Nifty closed below 24,400 with a 0.33% dip and has been forming lower highs—signaling weakening momentum,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP & Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

“A bearish crossover on the daily RSI is likely. The 24,470–24,500 zone is an immediate hurdle; a breakout could push Nifty to 24,650–24,800. On the downside, 24,260–24,230 is key support, followed by 24,100–24,070.”

On Sensex, he added: “The index fell 0.19%, also showing lower highs. Support lies at 80,400–80,300, while 80,800–80,900 remains the key hurdle. OI PCR is at 0.87.”

Read More 
Indian Rupees Declines As India-Pak Tensions Intensify

Top Movers and Sectoral Trends
Top gainers included:
Bharti Airtel (+1.66%)
Tata Steel (+1.62%)
Mahindra & Mahindra (+1.59%)
Key losers were:
Reliance Industries (-0.74%)
Titan (-0.72%)
Asian Paints (-0.71%)

On the NSE, 2,946 stocks were traded, with 545 advancing, 2,331 declining, and 70 unchanged — reflecting a broad-based weakness even before the geopolitical flare-up.
Nifty sectoral indices performance:

Nifty Bank dropped by 1.18%
Nifty PSU Bank tumbled 4.84% on fears of stake sales
Nifty Energy lost 2.35%
Nifty Metal and Pharma also slipped, by 0.88% and 1.11% respectively
Nifty Auto edged up 0.17%
Nifty FMCG remained nearly flat (-0.09%)

Short-Term Jitters, Long-Term Resilience?
It’s worth noting that the Nifty has rallied nearly 12% in recent weeks, marking an unusually sharp uptrend. This suggests there may be room for short-term profit booking — especially amid fresh geopolitical triggers.

However, if past patterns hold, experts believe any dip triggered by Operation Sindoor may be short-lived unless the situation worsens.

What to Watch Today
Opening Bell Reaction (9:15 AM): Will markets open with a gap down or hold the 24,200 support zone?
US Fed Commentary: A dovish tone could stabilize global markets.
Global Trade Cues: Optimism around US-China and India-UK trade talks could soften the blow.