RBI Reports 27% Higher Surplus in 2025; Sees Lower Inflation Ahead

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has declared a record ₹2.69 lakh crore surplus to be transferred to the government for FY25—a sharp 27.3% jump from ₹2.10 lakh crore in FY24, according to its Annual Report 2024–25 released Wednesday.

This surge comes on the back of a strong rise in earnings. The RBI’s total income rose 22.7% year-on-year to ₹3.38 lakh crore, while total expenditure increased just 7.75% YoY to ₹69,714 crore, leading to a substantial improvement in surplus generation.

Key Financial Highlights:

Surplus to Govt: ₹2.69 lakh crore (↑27.3% YoY)

Total Income: ₹3.38 lakh crore (↑22.7% YoY)

Total Expenditure: ₹69,714 crore (↑7.75% YoY)

Balance Sheet Size: ₹76.25 lakh crore (↑8.2% YoY)

On the asset side, foreign currency assets, gold, and others made up 74.27% of total assets, while domestic assets accounted for 25.73%. The RBI’s gold reserves also rose 57.48 metric tonnes YoY to 879.58 tonnes as of March 31, 2025.

Policy & Economic Outlook:

Inflation: Headline inflation is projected to ease towards the 4% target by FY26, aided by a likely normal monsoon, softening commodity prices, and easing supply chain pressures.

GDP: India is poised to remain the fastest-growing major economy, driven by strong consumption and continued public investment.

Debt Concerns: The RBI flagged rising public debt as a potential risk to fiscal sustainability.

Strategic Initiatives for FY26:

CBDC Expansion: Pilots for cross-border payments, new B2B use cases, and deeper ULI integration

AI Regulation: A new framework for ethical and responsible AI adoption in financial systems

FX-Retail Access: Linkage of FX-Retail platform to Bharat Connect, pilot for USD purchase by individuals and sole proprietors

NBFC Lending Reform: Review of EBLR-based loan pricing for NBFCs, though not found feasible currently

Despite global uncertainties, including a projected 0.2% contraction in merchandise trade in 2025, positive signals from US-UK and US-China trade agreements offer some relief to the external environment.

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