Stock Market Today: BSE Sensex, NSE Nifty 50 Set for Volatile Session As India-Pakistan Tensions Rattle Markets - Key Support Levels to Watch

Indian equity markets are expected to witness a volatile session today following reports of severe military escalation between India and Pakistan.

Benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 are predicted to open lower, reacting to overnight developments that saw Indian military installations targeted by drone and missile attacks allegedly launched from Pakistan.

According to the Indian Defence Ministry, the attacks targeted key military bases in Jammu, Srinagar, Pathankot, and Amritsar late Thursday night. Defence forces successfully intercepted several drones and neutralised the threats. In a retaliatory move, India reportedly destroyed a Pakistani air defence system in Lahore.

The sharp rise in geopolitical risks has unnerved investors and is expected to weigh heavily on market sentiment.

Wall Street Gains Fail to Lift Domestic Sentiment
Despite strong cues from Wall Street, where all major US indices ended Thursday's session in the green, Indian equities failed to carry forward the momentum. US markets initially surged on optimism following President Donald Trump's announcement of a trade agreement framework with the UK. However, profit booking toward the end trimmed gains.

‘The strength on Wall Street was driven by President Donald Trump's unveiling of a trade agreement framework with the UK,’ said Sudeep Shah, Deputy VP & Head of Technical & Derivatives Research, SBI Securities.

This positive global sentiment was bolstered further by the Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. These developments could have been supportive for risk assets, but geopolitical stress appears to be the overriding theme for Indian markets.

“Market participants are also likely to focus on the potential trade deal between the US and India as well, also President Trump has hinted at further trade deals in the coming days. But yes, in the opening trades, we could see a lot of pressure. In case the tension calm down, we could see a relief rally from lower levels. However, in case the tensions escalate further, there could be more pressure on the Nifty as well,” Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet.
 

Thursday Recap: Markets Drop on Geopolitical Concerns
On Thursday, the benchmark Sensex closed 412 points or 0.51% lower at 80,334.81 after a volatile trading session. All major sectoral indices were in the red except IT, which held firm due to its defensive nature. The market briefly rallied in the morning but failed to sustain gains following the news of border tensions.

Realty, oil & gas, auto, power, and utilities stocks saw significant losses, reflecting the market’s nervousness over the escalating situation. The Nifty 50 index also declined sharply, closing below the 24,300 level with a 0.58% loss for the day.

Pre-Open Indicators: GIFT Nifty Signals Choppy Start
The GIFT Nifty futures, considered a key early indicator of Nifty 50's performance, initially dropped by 250 points before recovering to trade at 23,959 as of 7:46 AM. This suggests a possible modest opening, about 0.31% higher compared to Thursday’s close of 24,273.80.

 'Opening Pressure Likely; Relief Rally Possible If Tensions Ease'
'The overall sentiments in the Indian markets are likely to be dominated by the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. In continuation of the selling that we had seen in the previous trading session, we are likely to see selling in the opening trades as well, and a gapdown opening is quite likely as indicated by the gift nifty,’ Said Sachdeva.

Technical Levels to Watch: Nifty and Sensex
According to analysts, today's trading session could be critical for establishing near-term support and resistance zones.
For Nifty 50, the support zone lies between 23,890–23,870. If the index slips below 23,870, the next crucial support is around 23,700.

On the upside, resistance is expected in the 24,170–24,200 zone.

‘On the weekly expiry day, the benchmark Nifty index remained confined within a narrow range during the first half of the session. However, a sharp sell-off emerged in the latter half after news broke about escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. As a result, the index slipped below the 24300 mark, ending the day with a loss of 0.58%. With further escalation reported overnight, the market may remain highly volatile today as well. Considering the gap-down opening, the zone of 22390-23870 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the 23870 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 23700 level,’ said Shah.

Options data showed heavy call open interest at the 24,300 and 24,400 strike prices, while on the put side, 24,200 and 24,100 strikes saw substantial open interest. The OI PCR (Open Interest Put-Call Ratio) stands at 0.87.
 

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BSE Sensex, Nifty 50, Rupee Set To Open Lower As India-Pakistan Conflict

For Sensex, immediate support lies at 79,400–79,300, and resistance is pegged at 79,900–80,000. The weekly futures slipped by 0.69% with a significant 72% surge in open interest, suggesting a short build-up. The 80500 and 81000 call strikes and the 80000 and 79500 put strikes are key open interest zones to track. The OI PCR is at 0.76, according to Shah. 

‘In terms of the key levels, the 23,800 mark is a near-term minor support area. In case that holds, we are likely to see buying interest coming in at lower levels. Having said that, in case that level is breached, further pressure cannot be ruled out, and we could see Nifty slipping towards 23,500 first and then 23,200 is also a possibility in case these tensions escalate,’ noted Sachdeva

India VIX Soars: Market Volatility Deepens
India’s volatility index, India VIX, surged over 10% on Thursday and has risen 104% in just 11 sessions, moving from a recent low of 12.84. It now trades near the 22.60–22.80 resistance zone. A break above this could indicate heightened panic, while support is seen around 19.50–19.30, according to Shah.

Derivatives and Institutional Flow: FII Buying Continues Despite Weakness
He also added, on the FII/DII front:
FIIs bought equities worth Rs 2,007.96 crore
DIIs sold worth Rs 596.25 crore

Sagveda Said, “Overall FII buying has continued but in the previous session, there was a sharp sell-off in Indian assets-equities, Indian rupee and bonds”

According to Shah, “The 24,300 strike has significant call open interest, followed by the 24,400 strike. On the put side, 24,200 has substantial open interest, followed by a 24,100 strike. The overall sentiments are likely to be dominated by the India-Pakistan tensions.”

Sectoral Outlook: Defensive Bets May Outperform
Experts expect Nifty PSU Bank, Pharma, Healthcare, Metal, Realty, and PSE sectors to underperform in the near term due to broad-based selling and risk aversion. However, IT stocks could act as a safe haven given their defensiveness during geopolitical uncertainty.

Watch Tensions, Not Just Charts
While technical indicators and global cues present a mixed picture, the overriding factor remains the India-Pakistan conflict. Any further escalation may trigger deeper market corrections, while signs of de-escalation could spark a relief rally from lower levels.

With volatility surging and sentiment shaky, investors are advised to tread cautiously, keep a close watch on defence and geopolitical developments, and avoid aggressive positioning until clarity emerges.

Disclaimer

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