Stock Market Today: Nifty50, BSE Sensex Likely To Open Lower Amid Iran-Israel Conflict; Key Levels To Watch

Indian benchmark indices the Sensex and Nifty 50 are poised to open lower on Wednesday, tracking weak global cues and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Gift Nifty hinted at a tepid start for Indian equities, aligning with the bearish mood seen across international markets.

On Tuesday, the Sensex ended 212.85 points or 0.26% lower at 81,583.30, while the Nifty 50 closed down 93.10 points or 0.37% at 24,853.40, settling near the 24,850 mark.
“The benchmark index Nifty traded within a narrow 168-point range and settled lower, forming a small-bodied bearish candle on the daily chart. This reflects indecision with a slight downward bias,” said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical & Derivative Research at SBI Securities.

Key Technical Levels to Watch Today
Despite the drop, Nifty managed to hold above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is acting as immediate support. However, momentum indicators and oscillators are showing signs of fatigue.
“This suggests that the index may remain in a consolidation phase unless a decisive breakout occurs on either side,” Shah added.
Support Levels: 24,730–24,700
Crucial Breakdown Level: Below 24,700 could trigger a slide to 24,550
Resistance Levels: 24,980–25,000
Breakout Level: Sustaining above 25,000 could push Nifty towards 25,150

The Sensex, meanwhile, moved within a 463-point range and also formed a small bearish candle. According to Shah, “The zone of 81,200–81,100 will act as immediate support for the index, while 81,900–82,000 will be the crucial hurdle.”

Bank Nifty Under Pressure
Banking stocks continued to face selling pressure, with Bank Nifty closing below its 20-day EMA. The loss of this support level raises concerns over momentum in the sector.
“The zone of 55,400–55,300 is immediate support for Bank Nifty. If it falls below 55,300, the next key level to watch is 54,900. On the upside, 56,000–56,100 will be the resistance zone,” Shah pointed out.

IT Sector to Outperform, Metals and Pharma May Lag
One bright spot is the Nifty IT index, which is likely to continue outperforming in the near term. “We are seeing relative strength in IT counters, and they may provide some cushion to the broader markets,” Shah said.

Conversely, Nifty Metal, Pharma, Healthcare, PSU Bank, and FMCG indices are expected to underperform, as per Shah’s outlook.

Global Cues Turn Risk-Averse
Investor sentiment globally turned cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Wall Street closed in the red on Tuesday as fears grew over a wider conflict in the Middle East.
Dow Jones fell 299.29 points (-0.70%) to 42,215.80
S&P 500 dropped 0.84% to 5,982.72
Nasdaq Composite slid 0.91% to 19,521.09

“All three major U.S. indices ended Tuesday’s session in the red, weighed down by rising geopolitical tensions. Iran's threat of launching its ‘largest and most intense’ missile attack on Israeli soil escalated concerns across the Middle East,” said Shah.

Adding fuel to the fire, USPresident Donald Trump reportedly urged a military strike on Iran while calling for an “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” from Iranian leadership on Truth Social, further spooking markets.

Oil Prices Surge Over 4%
One of the most immediate market reactions to the geopolitical turmoil came from crude oil prices. Brent crude futures surged 4.4% to $76.45 per barrel, while WTI crude jumped 4.28% to $74.84.

“Brent Crude found support near its 200-day EMA and rebounded sharply by nearly 6% on Tuesday, forming a robust bullish candle. Going ahead, the zone of $76.80–77 may act as key resistance, while support lies around $73.50–73.20,” Shah said.

Investors fear that any further escalation in the Middle East—especially involving oil-rich nations—could disrupt global energy supply chains.

Asia-Pacific Markets Mixed
Asian markets traded mixed early Wednesday as global investors weighed the possible consequences of a full-blown conflict:
Nikkei 225 rose 0.47%, Topix gained 0.4%
Kospi climbed 0.7%, Kosdaq up 0.66%
S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) traded flat

Japan’s exports for May fell 1.7% YoY, better than expectations of a 3.8% decline. This comes after the Bank of Japan warned of moderating growth due to trade challenges and declining domestic corporate profits.

FII/DII Flow Remains Positive
Despite the volatility, institutional activity remained positive in the Indian cash segment:
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 1,482.77 crore
Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) net bought Rs 8,207.19 crore

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This indicates underlying domestic strength and continued investor confidence, even as global risks remain elevated.

What to Expect Today
Given the combined weight of technical indicators, sectoral divergence, global geopolitical risk, and oil price volatility, Indian equity markets may remain range-bound or show weakness during Wednesday’s session. Key sectors like IT may provide some support, but pressure from banking, metal, and pharma names could cap gains.

Unless Nifty breaches the 25,000 level decisively, a prolonged consolidation phase is likely.

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this article are purely informational and Republic Media Network does not vouch for, promote or endorse any opinions stated by any third party. Stock market and Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks and readers are advised to seek expert advice before investing in stocks, derivatives and Mutual Funds