Trump May Levy 10% Tariff on All Imports, 20% on China: Jefferies

U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly set to rebalance his belligerent tariff strategy with a more consistent trade policy, based on a new report by international investment bank Jefferies. The report indicates Trump would impose a level 10% tariff across all imports and a 20% tariff particularly on Chinese products, marking a strategic move in the U.S.'s trade stance before the 2026 election cycle.

From Trade War to Trade Reset?

Jefferies is proposing that Trump wants an "off-ramp" from the chaotic tariff hikes of his previous presidency. "Tariffs will end up at a global 10% across the board, and 20% for China, with the 10% tariff residual from the initial Trump administration," the report said. This strategy could enable the Trump administration to keep China tough on its narrative yet streamline the larger import mechanism — perhaps something more amenable to U.S. business as well as international allies.

China's Clever Pushback

As the U.S. considers tariff overhaul, China has unilaterally rolled out economic counter-repression. The report identifies Beijing's move to harness its monopoly over rare earth elements, tying exports to Washington's denial of Chinese access to cutting-edge semiconductors.

At the same time, China strengthened its economic shields by sharply increasing gold imports. China's gold imports in April 2025 climbed 73% from the previous month to a 11-month high of 127.5 tonnes. Chinese gold ETFs have already gained 82.1 tonnes in 2025—already more than last year's 53.3 tonnes—according to the World Gold Council.

Internal Divisions in U.S. Policy

Jefferies also suggests internal divisions within the U.S. regarding trade direction. To go after a hypothetical deal with China, the report states, Trump would have to break with the national security lobby, which has continued to support tough trade measures.

"Trump will have to break with the national security lobby, particularly with China's intelligent move to connect the rare earth issue," the brokerage stated.

What Lies Ahead?

The report says that although tariffs are not disappearing, they could be rebranded for political and strategic maneuverability. A 10% across-the-board tariff is easy to administer, but a 20% tariff on China maintains the combative bite.

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