Trump’s Tariff Self-Goal! How Washington’s Trade War Is Pushing India, China & Russia Closer Together

New Delhi: US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on Indian goods, on top of his existing trade war with China, is rapidly reshaping the global economic and diplomatic landscape.

What started as a campaign to protect American industries is now pushing some of the world’s biggest economies closer together, while forcing countries like India, Russia, and China to rethink their strategies in an increasingly fractured world order.

At the centre of this shift is Trump’s aggressive use of tariffs and threats. His measures, including raising duties on Indian exports by up to 50%, are causing ripple effects across Asia and beyond, leading to realignments that may weaken Washington’s long-standing influence.

India’s Balancing Act

India has found itself in a particularly difficult position. For years, Washington viewed New Delhi as a natural counterweight to China in Asia. But Trump’s tariff hikes have disrupted that equation, putting pressure on India’s exporters while simultaneously testing its diplomatic ties with the US

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is now seeking to diversify partnerships. On Thursday, he set off on a major overseas tour to meet leaders of Japan, China, and Russia. His goal is clear: build closer economic and diplomatic ties with some of the world’s largest economies while insulating India from the fallout of US trade penalties.

Japan has already signalled its readiness to deepen ties, with companies pledging investments worth up to 10 trillion yen ($68 billion) over the next decade.

Suzuki Motor alone has promised $8 billion in new spending over the next five to six years.

Tokyo and New Delhi are also working on cooperation in critical minerals and advanced manufacturing, areas that could directly support Modi’s "Make in India" initiative.

In China, Modi’s visit will be closely watched. It is his first in seven years, and it comes against the backdrop of Xi Jinping’s quiet outreach earlier this year, when he wrote to President Droupadi Murmu proposing warmer ties.

Both sides are now discussing reopening border trade, resuming direct flights after a five-year gap, and easing restrictions on investments.

For India, the US tariffs have created an incentive to explore economic cooperation even with rivals like China, despite lingering mistrust following deadly border clashes in 2020.

Also Read: Xi Jinping's 'Secret Letter' Revived India–China Relations: Reports

Russia and China: From Record Highs to New Challenges

Russia, meanwhile, is also grappling with Trump’s tariff-driven disruption. Since it invaded Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has been increasingly dependent on China for both exports and imports.

According to Reuters, Bilateral trade soared to a record $245 billion in 2024 as Beijing bought discounted Russian oil and sold vehicles, electronics, and consumer goods to fill the vacuum left by the West.

But 2025 has seen cracks appear. Trade between the two countries fell by 8.1% year-on-year from January to July, driven by declining oil exports to China and slumping imports of Chinese cars and electronics.

Russian officials admit the numbers are troubling and are now scrambling to identify new areas of cooperation, including agriculture and energy. Projects like the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline have been under discussion for years but remain stalled.

The imbalance is evident: China’s economy is nine times larger than Russia’s, making Moscow the junior partner. Yet Russia cannot afford to lose Beijing’s support.

As one Russian government insider bluntly told Reuters, “Without them, we would not have been able to make a single missile, let alone a drone, and the whole economy would have collapsed long ago.”

Trump’s sanctions and tariffs, therefore, are deepening Russia’s reliance on China while forcing Moscow to simultaneously court India more aggressively.

India’s Russian Oil Bet

Nowhere is this realignment clearer than in the oil trade. India has become the largest buyer of Russian oil displaced by Western sanctions, according to Reuters sources.

In September, Indian refiners are expected to increase purchases by 10–20% compared to August levels, equivalent to up to 300,000 barrels per day.

The economics are straightforward. Russian oil, sold at discounts of $2–$3 per barrel compared to Brent crude, offers Indian refiners cheaper supplies at a time when global energy markets are volatile.

This has allowed New Delhi to meet nearly 40% of its oil needs through Russian crude, saving billions in import costs.

But the move has not gone unnoticed in Washington. US officials have accused India of profiteering from discounted Russian oil, while Indian officials have pushed back, highlighting Western “double standards.” After all, the European Union and the US continue to buy billions of dollars’ worth of Russian goods themselves.

Trump’s tariff hike on Indian exports, combined with criticism of its Russian oil purchases, is straining ties further. Instead of pushing India closer to the US, the pressure may be driving it into deeper engagement with Moscow and Beijing.

Shifting Alliances

The bigger picture is that Trump’s tariffs are accelerating trends already underway. Countries hit by US economic penalties are increasingly looking to each other for trade and investment.

India and Japan are strengthening ties through technology, manufacturing, and critical minerals.

India and China are cautiously reopening dialogue, with trade and investment on the agenda despite security concerns.

Russia and China remain strategic partners, though trade is wobbling, highlighting Moscow’s vulnerability.

India and Russia are boosting oil trade, cementing an economic bond shaped by necessity.

Meanwhile, the US, once seen as a stable anchor for global trade, is now viewed by many as an unpredictable partner willing to use tariffs as a blunt instrument.

The Road Ahead

The geopolitical consequences of Trump’s tariff campaign are still unfolding. In the short term, India, Russia, and China are likely to continue hedging their bets, building alternative partnerships to reduce dependence on the US

For India, the tariffs could push it toward greater integration with Asian-led trade arrangements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), a free-trade pact dominated by Beijing.

For Russia, continued sanctions mean doubling down on China and India, even if it comes at the cost of long-term leverage.

And for China, Trump’s tariffs have only reinforced its ambition to build parallel economic and security structures outside of Washington’s reach.

Trump’s tariffs may protect some US industries in the short term, but globally they are driving unexpected shifts.

By targeting both allies and rivals with the same hardline tactics, Washington risks weakening old partnerships and creating new alliances that could, in time, reshape the balance of power in Asia and beyond.