Vedanta Share Price Target Cut 4.5% By Emkay; ‘BUY’ Reiterated After Strong Q4 – Check What’s Changed

Brokerage firm Emkay has reiterated its ‘BUY’ rating on Vedanta while revising the share price target to Rs 525 from Rs 550.

The revision follows a 5% cut in FY26–27 EBITDA estimates. Q4FY25 showed a steady performance driven by Aluminium and Zinc India businesses, with strong cash generation reducing net debt.

Vedanta Q4 Results FY25
Vedanta Ltd. reported a steady Q4FY25 performance, with consolidated EBITDA reaching $116.2 billion, up 4.5% against Emkay’s estimates and 3% quarter-on-quarter. The performance was largely supported by better profitability in the Aluminium and Zinc India divisions, which together contributed 82% to the quarterly EBITDA. Aluminium generated $46.6 billion (up 2.6% QoQ) and Zinc India delivered $48.1 billion (up 6.2% QoQ).

The Zinc India business saw a lift from higher zinc and silver volumes (up 4.9% and 11% QoQ, respectively), alongside a rise in average silver prices to USD 31.9/oz. However, the aluminium segment faced headwinds due to high-cost alumina inventory carried over from Q3.

Strong Cash Flows Cut Net Debt
Vedanta’s net debt stood at ₹532.5 billion at the end of Q4FY25, a 7.2% sequential decline. This improved the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 1.2x from 1.4x in the previous quarter. Emkay attributed this to “strong cash generation” during the quarter.
 

Project Updates and Demerger Timeline
Key project updates include the Lanjigarh Refinery Train 2 and the 435kt BALCO smelter expansion, both set for commissioning in H1FY26. In the power segment, the remaining 700MW from the Meenakshi project and both units of the Athena power plant are scheduled to go live between H1FY26 and March 2026.

In mining, the Sijimali and Kuraloi mines are expected to commence operations in Q3FY26, while Ghogarpalli is targeted for Q4FY26.

On the corporate restructuring front, the proposed demerger has reached the second motion petition stage with the NCLT, and management reaffirmed a completion timeline of September 2025.

Read More 
'We Anticipate Completing Demerger By...' - Anil Agarwal's Vedanta Shares Latest Update On Demerger In Q4 Earnings Call


Vedanta Share Price Target
Despite the positive Q4, Emkay has revised down its EBITDA estimates for FY26–27 by about 5% due to lower zinc LME forecasts and delays in captive coal mine operations. “We revise down our EBITDA estimate by ~5% for FY26–27... As a result, we cut our target price by 4.5% to Rs 525 from Rs 550,” Emkay stated.

Still, the brokerage remains optimistic about Vedanta’s growth trajectory, maintaining its ‘BUY’ recommendation given the ongoing project ramp-ups, debt reduction, and the upcoming demerger.

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