Will Nifty Cross 24,000? Technicals Strong, FIIs Back — Analysts Weigh In

April has been nothing short of a rollercoaster for Indian equities. On April 7, bears seized Dalal Street in one of the sharpest crashes in recent memory. The BSE Sensex nosedived over 4,000 points while the Nifty 50 tumbled more than 5%. The sharp sell-off was triggered by mounting global uncertainty as then-US President Donald Trump escalated tariff tensions with China, jolting global markets.

Yet just 10 days later, on April 17, the same market staged a dramatic comeback. The Nifty closed at 23,850—just a breath away from the 24,000 milestone—while the Sensex surged to 78,500. What sparked this powerful rebound?

“It’s a classic example of how markets often recover with force just when conviction is hardest to find,” said Sudeep Shah, Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical & Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. “The strongest rallies are born from the depths of doubt.”

Policy Shifts Trigger Turnaround
President Trump's mixed tariff strategy—raising duties on Chinese imports to 125% while pausing most new tariffs for 90 days—shook global sentiment but ended up acting as a surprising catalyst for Indian equities. 

“A key catalyst for this resilience was the Trump administration’s decision to implement a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most countries, including India,” noted Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet. “It sparked renewed optimism and helped Indian markets surge to a monthly high of 23,872.”

This sudden shift in sentiment also coincided with India’s own tailwinds. “The market has been rallying for three main reasons,” explained Anand K. Rathi, Co-Founder of MIRA Money. “An above-normal monsoon forecast, inflation hitting a six-year low, and falling crude oil prices have all provided a powerful domestic cushion to global shocks.”
 

FIIs Flip the Script
Another key contributor to the recovery has been the renewed participation of foreign investors. After remaining net sellers earlier in the month, FIIs turned aggressive buyers post-April 15. Over just three trading sessions, foreign portfolio investors poured in Rs 14,670 crore into Indian equities.

‘Adding to the optimism is the strong inflow from foreign portfolio investors. Since April 15, 2025, FPIs have gone on a buying spree, buying equities worth Rs.14,670 crore across just three trading sessions,’ said Sachdeva.

“The long-short ratio in index futures jumped from 21.59 to 29.52, showing FIIs actively covering their shorts and entering long trades,” said Shah. “We’re seeing selective accumulation in large-cap names, which is giving this rally real legs.”

Nifty’s Technicals: Gaining Altitude
From a technical lens, the Nifty’s move from its low of 21,743.65 to 23,850 in just seven sessions is among the sharpest in recent memory. “The index is now trading well above its 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, which have begun to curve upward,” Shah said. “The RSI has also crossed 60 and is rising steadily, signaling strong buying interest.”

Sachdeva pointed out that the Nifty has decisively moved above its crucial 100- and 200-day DEMA, reinforcing a bullish bias. 

“If positive cues continue, especially from ongoing tariff negotiations, the index could test 24,500—representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the swing high of 26,277 to the recent low,” she said.

Bank Nifty: Leading from the Front
A major driver of the recent upswing has been Bank Nifty, which has consistently outperformed the broader market. “Bank Nifty is just a stone’s throw away from its all-time high,” Shah noted, “while the Nifty is still 9% below its peak—a clear sign of sectoral strength.”

An interesting technical takeaway is the ratio chart of Bank Nifty vs. Nifty, now at an 81-week high. “With all major moving averages aligned positively, we expect Bank Nifty to head toward the 55,000 mark,” said Shah.

According to Rathi, the performance of banking stocks is a good reflection of macro sentiment. “A stronger rural economy driven by good monsoon prospects, falling inflation, and lower crude prices means better loan demand and lower NPAs. These are precisely the conditions banks thrive in,” he explained.
 

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Domestic Tailwinds: Why India is Outperforming
While global indices like the Dow Jones, Nikkei, NASDAQ, and Hang Seng have declined 5–7% month-to-date, India has gained over 1.4% during the same period. “This divergence is rare and speaks to India’s internal economic strength,” said Sachdeva. “Retail inflation dropped to 4.6%, a six-year low. Crude has slipped below $60—a four-year low—and the rupee has held stable. Plus, the dollar index has fallen below 100, making Indian assets more attractive for global investors.”

In addition, the European Central Bank’s rate cut to 2.25%—its seventh in a row—could create further tailwinds for emerging markets like India, which are benefiting from improved liquidity conditions globally.

Sector Watch: Where the Money’s Flowing
While the broader rally has largely been powered by large-cap stocks, a closer look shows sector-specific breakouts. According to Shah, “Private banks, PSU banks, financial services, CPSEs, defense, capital markets, and India tourism are all showing strong technical signals.”

Stocks like Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, Bajaj Finserv, Indigo , Shriram Finance, IndusTower, Bank of Baroda, TVS Motors, Reliance Industries, and GAIL are high-conviction picks from a technical standpoint, with most either holding above key moving averages or breaking out of consolidation, as per Shah.

The Road Ahead: Can Nifty Break 24,000?

So, will the Nifty cross 24,000?

All three experts agree that the answer is: very likely, but not without volatility.

“Technically, any sustained move above 23,940 will push the index to 24,200, even 24,500 in the short term,” said Shah. “But immediate resistance remains around 23,880, and profit-booking can’t be ruled out.”

Sachdeva highlighted the importance of global cues: “That said, the path ahead may not be entirely smooth. After a rapid ascent of nearly 2,100 points over just seven trading sessions, the index faces significant resistance around the 23,880 mark. Furthermore, the market remains sensitive to global cues. Any negative developments, such as an escalation in the tariff war or a sharp rebound in the dollar index, could trigger profit booking, potentially dragging the Nifty back toward its immediate support level of 23,300.”

Rathi concluded with cautious optimism: “While these factors are driving the current market momentum, a rebound in corporate earnings will be necessary to maintain this rally. Although Q4 might not show significant improvements, indications point to positive developments starting in Q1 FY26 that could support further market growth. We may probably see the market reclaim its position to the 24,000 mark.”