Updated 15:30 IST, December 13th 2024
Myanmar’s Crisis Deepens as China Steps in with Military Support for the Junta
China’s growing involvement in Myanmar is a sharp reminder of Beijing’s broader ambitions in Southeast Asia and beyond.

New Delhi, India - In a move that many would view as a blatant attempt to strengthen its influence in Southeast Asia, China has announced plans to establish a joint security company with Myanmar’s military junta. This development marks a significant shift in China’s approach towards Myanmar, highlighting its willingness to directly intervene in the country’s civil conflict.
But while this move might serve China’s strategic interests in the short term, it could ultimately complicate both Myanmar’s internal stability and broader regional peace – especially for India, which has much at stake in this rapidly evolving situation.
China’s Shift from Cautious Engagement to Military Support
Since the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021, the country has descended into a brutal civil conflict. With the military junta clinging to power, various opposition groups, including ethnic armed organizations and pro-democracy activists, have taken up arms against the regime. The junta's inability to secure key regions, particularly those near the China-Myanmar border, has left China increasingly exposed and worried about the safety of its investments.

As global scrutiny of Myanmar intensifies – with calls for action from international bodies like the International Criminal Court – China, which once cautiously backed the junta, has now decided to step in with both feet. High-level visits between Chinese and Myanmar military leaders have become more frequent, most recently with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Myanmar in August 2024, followed by a reciprocal visit by junta leader Min Aung Hlaing to Beijing in November. These visits, while billed as diplomatic exchanges, seem more like Beijing’s desperate bid to shore up its interests in Myanmar, which are threatened by the instability and violence sweeping the country.
Now, in an unprecedented move, China is setting up a joint security company with Myanmar’s military to protect its investments and personnel amid the chaos. The formation of this security force, which will ostensibly remain separate from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), raises significant concerns. For one, it gives China a direct, albeit covert, military presence in Myanmar. This move could open the door to violent confrontations between Chinese security forces and local armed groups, further deepening the civil conflict and making it harder to envision any peaceful resolution.
A Provocative Step That Will Fuel Anti-China Sentiment
China’s growing presence in Myanmar could stir up a hornet’s nest. Myanmar’s population, already reeling from the brutality of the junta, may perceive the Chinese security forces as nothing more than foreign invaders propping up an unpopular regime. This is a recipe for disaster, particularly given the historical resentment towards China in Myanmar.
The Chinese government has already faced backlash in Myanmar, with local protests targeting Chinese-owned businesses and diplomatic missions. The decision to station security forces in Myanmar could spark further anti-China sentiment. If Chinese nationals are caught in the crossfire of local insurgent attacks or face direct violence from local armed groups, China will find itself at the centre of a diplomatic firestorm that it may not be prepared to handle.

For India, a neighbour with shared concerns about the security and stability of the region, this development is worrisome. Myanmar is a key player in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with major infrastructure projects, like pipelines and railways, passing through the country as part of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). India, which has long maintained a cautious stance toward China's growing influence in Southeast Asia, cannot afford to let Myanmar slip entirely into China's sphere of influence.
Regional Fallout: India, Bangladesh, and ASEAN
From an Indian perspective, China's direct involvement in Myanmar could have serious implications for regional security. Myanmar shares a border with India, and the rise of Chinese influence there will only add to New Delhi’s already complex security concerns. India's northeastern states, particularly insurgency-prone regions like Nagaland and Manipur, could see an uptick in Chinese-backed operations. The prospect of Chinese military personnel being stationed so close to India’s borders is, at best, unsettling.

Furthermore, as Myanmar’s instability grows, the risk of the crisis spilling over into neighbouring countries, such as Bangladesh and Thailand, increases. Both nations are already grappling with their own security challenges and could find themselves drawn into Myanmar’s conflict in unforeseen ways. India, along with its neighbours, will need to brace for the consequences of China’s expansionist policy in the region, which increasingly appears less about mutual development and more about securing Beijing’s dominance.
The involvement of China in Myanmar also undermines the efforts of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which has been at the forefront of promoting regional peace and stability. ASEAN has long called for a peaceful resolution to Myanmar’s crisis, but China’s heavy-handed actions may stymie the organization’s diplomatic initiatives, leading to further fragmentation within the region.
The Dangers of China’s Strategic Gamble
China’s decision to intervene more directly in Myanmar, ostensibly to protect its investments and personnel, is a gamble that could backfire. The junta’s failure to secure significant portions of the country has now prompted Beijing to step in with military support, but this could further entrench the civil conflict, turning Myanmar into a battleground for foreign interests. The longer China remains involved, the more likely it is to become a target for local armed groups and insurgents who see it as complicit in the junta’s crimes.

What’s particularly concerning is that China’s approach could signal a dangerous precedent in international relations: a willingness to support authoritarian regimes with little regard for the people’s will or the broader stability of the region. In Myanmar, China’s desire to protect its economic interests is coming at the expense of peace and sovereignty, and it risks being dragged into a quagmire that could have lasting regional consequences.
China’s growing involvement in Myanmar is a sharp reminder of Beijing’s broader ambitions in Southeast Asia and beyond. For India, the rising Chinese footprint in Myanmar is a wake-up call to reconsider its own strategies for dealing with Chinese expansionism in the region. The consequences of this involvement are yet to unfold, but one thing is certain: Myanmar’s suffering is far from over, and China’s role could be a significant factor in prolonging the conflict.
Published 15:30 IST, December 13th 2024