India-Pakistan Water War Simmering After Indus Treaty Suspension Over Pahalgam Terror Attack

New Delhi, India - On April 25, 2025, India formally suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) with Pakistan , marking a decisive shift in its strategic doctrine after the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 civilian lives. In an unprecedented step, New Delhi also ordered the closure of the Baglihar and Salal dams on the Chenab River, significantly reducing water flow to Pakistan. The move, perceived as a diplomatic and tactical retaliation, has triggered panic across Pakistan’s irrigation-reliant Punjab region.

Following the suspension, satellite data from April 30 initially indicated normal flow. However, by May 3, India had cut off nearly 90% of the Baglihar Dam’s discharge under the pretext of reservoir de-silting. The Indian government, invoking hydropower development rights permitted under the treaty, appears to be recalibrating its river regulation strategy. Plans are underway to similarly control the Jhelum River’s flow, adding further pressure on Pakistan’s water security calculus.

Pakistan’s Punjab Braces For Irrigation Collapse as Chenab Flow Drops Near Sialkot

In Pakistan, the response has been swift and alarmed. The Chenab River’s downstream flow, especially at the Marala Headworks, has reportedly declined, threatening millions of acres of farmland. Though Islamabad claims the river is “drying up dramatically” near Sialkot, these reports remain unverified. Nonetheless, the water shortage jeopardizes the livelihoods of nearly 15.2 crore Pakistanis who depend on the Indus River system.

Reacting to the crisis, Pakistan’s Foreign Office has labelled India’s move an “act of war,” warning of dire consequences. In a show of military readiness, Pakistan conducted a ballistic missile test on May 3, interpreted by analysts as a veiled threat. Additionally, the IWT’s suspension has halted the bilateral exchange of hydrological data—an arrangement critical for Pakistan’s flood forecasting and dam management. Experts fear that this void will increase vulnerability to climate-linked disasters and amplify mistrust in bilateral relations.

Hydroelectric Storage Projects in Kashmir Ramped Up Amid Strategic Recalibration

A week after suspending the treaty, the Indian government has now escalated measures by enhancing reservoir storage at strategic hydroelectric sites. According to sources cited by NDTV, the National Hydroelectric Power Corporation (NHPC) carried out “reservoir flushing”—the clearing of silt deposits—at both the Salal and Baglihar projects. This technical process not only ensures structural efficiency but also facilitates greater water control, giving India further leverage.

In addition to optimizing existing capacity, India plans to revive six long-stalled hydroelectric projects in Jammu and Kashmir. These include the 1,856 MW Sawalkot project, the Kirthai I and II complexes expected to generate 1,320 MW, and the 1,000 MW Pakal Dul plant. Three additional plants—totalling 2,224 MW—are also in the pipeline. Collectively, these projects will enhance Jammu and Kashmir’s power output to approximately 10,000 MW, while improving irrigation and domestic water availability in northern India’s plains.

India Accelerates Hydro-infrastructure While Balancing Regional Risks and Power Needs

India’s rapid pivot toward water infrastructure militarization follows a consistent strategic arc—leveraging hydropower to apply pressure without breaching wartime thresholds. Experts argue this “silent offensive” is within the legal framework of the treaty, which allows India limited non-consumptive use of western rivers like the Chenab and Jhelum. Nevertheless, the de facto blockade has geopolitical consequences, drawing global attention to water as a weapon in South Asia.

Environmentalists and engineers, however, caution against overreliance on damming in the ecologically fragile and seismically active Himalayan belt. Concerns have been raised about landslide risks, downstream sedimentation, and habitat loss. Despite this, the strategic calculus appears to outweigh environmental apprehensions for now. With Pakistan facing imminent water stress and India consolidating control, the stakes in this water war are rising fast.

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