Post-Pahalgam, Why India’s Cold Start Doctrine May Shape Cross-LoC Strategy in Leepa and Neelum Valleys

Kashmir, India - The deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam on April 22, 2025, has rapidly escalated tensions between India and Pakistan , plunging the subcontinent into yet another period of strategic uncertainty. In its immediate aftermath, India showcased military muscle in Rajasthan through highly visible exercises under Sapta Shakti Command and BSF Rajasthan. However, a closer examination of the evolving military and political situation suggests that this posturing may be a calculated decoy, designed to mask potential offensive plans directed through the Leepa and Neelum Valleys into Pakistan-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK).

On April 22, heavily armed terrorists from The Resistance Front (TRF), an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba, attacked civilians in the serene Baisaran Meadow above Pahalgam. Using M4 carbines and AK-47s, the attackers segregated victims based on their religion, brutally killing 26 civilians and injuring over 20 others. The tragedy, being the deadliest since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, triggered an unprecedented political and military reaction from India. Immediate steps included the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and the closure of the Attari-Wagah border, signalling New Delhi’s resolve to escalate its retaliation across diplomatic, economic, and potentially military domains.

SHBO Drills in Rajasthan: Signaling Readiness or Strategic Deception?

As tensions simmered, the Indian Army’s Sapta Shakti Command rapidly executed a Special Heliborne Operations (SHBO) exercise in Rajasthan on April 24, 2025. Codenamed “Swift. Silent. Surgical.,” the drill simulated a precision tactical raid with troops airlifted via Mi-17 helicopters into contested zones under real-time battlefield conditions. The exercise was designed to underscore rapid force projection capabilities, seamless inter-service synergy between the Indian Army and Indian Air Force, and the ability to strike deep behind enemy lines even in harsh desert terrain.

Lieutenant General Manjinder Singh, GOC-in-C of Sapta Shakti Command, further reviewed operational preparedness with an emphasis on communications and battlefield technologies. The highly publicised nature of these drills, including live updates from official Army handles, seems to be aimed at amplifying India’s readiness posture. Yet, analysts argue that such overt displays could be masking deeper, covert intentions focused elsewhere, particularly along the volatile Line of Control.

Leepa and Neelum Valleys: Natural Corridors for Cross-LoC Operations

Hidden behind the media coverage of desert manoeuvres is India’s historical and ongoing strategic interest in the Leepa and Neelum Valleys. Situated barely 40 kilometres from Muzaffarabad, the capital of POJK, Leepa Valley offers a direct, albeit rugged, access route into enemy-held territory. Likewise, Neelum Valley serves as a corridor adjacent to Kupwara and Bandipora districts in Jammu and Kashmir—regions critical for any cross-LoC insertion or targeted strikes.

Both valleys have historically witnessed terrorist infiltration, artillery duels, and special forces operations. Most notably, India’s 2016 surgical strikes following the Uri terror attack reportedly included targets in these valleys. Their strategic location near key terrorist hubs makes them high-value objectives should India seek to undertake limited punitive incursions aligned with its Cold Start Doctrine—emphasising quick, high-impact, and geographically limited operations without crossing nuclear thresholds.

India’s Cold Start Doctrine, formulated after the 2001 Parliament attack, is a strategic framework designed to enable swift, decisive responses to provocations like the Pahalgam attack. The doctrine emerged from the lessons of Operation Parakram when slow mobilization allowed Pakistan time to counter India’s military buildup. Cold Start seeks to rectify this by enabling rapid offensives within 48-72 hours, using pre-positioned integrated battle groups (IBGs) that combine infantry, armour, artillery, and air support. These units are engineered for shallow incursions—typically penetrating 50-80 kilometres—to achieve limited objectives, such as destroying terrorist infrastructure, before withdrawing to avoid escalation into a full-scale war or crossing Pakistan’s nuclear threshold.

The doctrine’s emphasis on speed, precision, and limited scope makes it highly relevant to the current scenario. In response to the Pahalgam attack, India could deploy Cold Start principles to launch punitive operations through the Leepa and Neelum Valleys. The IBGs’ rapid mobilization would allow India to strike terrorist camps and retreat before Pakistan could mount a significant counteroffensive. The integration of air and ground forces would facilitate targeted airstrikes and special forces raids, aligning with the doctrine’s goal of delivering a sharp, calibrated blow. By focusing on terrorist targets rather than deep territorial gains, India could signal resolve while minimizing the risk of a broader conflict, making Cold Start a plausible framework for its military strategy.

LoC Activity and Strategic Risks

On April 24, minor firing incidents were reported from Leepa Valley, with Pakistani forces initiating hostilities and Indian forces responding effectively. Though casualties were absent, the exchanges hint at an uptick in tactical friction along the LoC. Simultaneously, Indian Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi’s urgent visit to forward areas in Kashmir on April 25 indicates that Indian military attention remains sharply focused on the northern frontier.

Launching operations through the rugged, forested terrain of Leepa and Neelum Valleys would be consistent with India's approach to limited warfare, yet fraught with risks. Escalatory spirals, international diplomatic backlash, and the unpredictability of Pakistani military reactions—including the potential mobilisation of strategic assets—pose formidable challenges. However, the New Delhi appears poised to weigh these costs against mounting domestic demands for a forceful response and its broader strategic objective of asserting sovereignty over POJK.

Decoys, Diplomacy, and Domestic Calculations

The post-Pahalgam sequence—diplomatic isolation of Pakistan, economic measures like the suspension of water sharing, and visible military exercises—has generated a layered operational environment. The desert posturing in Rajasthan, involving heliborne strikes and division-level operational readiness displays, serves dual purposes: reassuring domestic audiences and drawing Pakistani focus away from the volatile Kashmir sector.

Should Indian planners opt for limited objectives—such as neutralising specific terror camps or establishing temporary control over key LoC zones—Leepa and Neelum Valleys present the most feasible terrain corridors. A swift, punitive raid could satisfy political imperatives without dragging India into a prolonged war, especially with elections on the horizon. However, if miscalculated, even tactical actions could spiral into a broader Indo-Pakistani conflict, something India’s strategic community remains deeply cautious about.

While India's military theatrics in Rajasthan convey a narrative of conventional deterrence, a deeper, more plausible strategy could involve surgical moves through the Leepa and Neelum Valleys, exploiting historical infiltration routes now repurposed for Indian kinetic operations. With diplomatic bridges burned and public anger seething, New Delhi might just be preparing the ground for a high-risk, high-reward gambit—one that could reshape the Kashmir narrative for years to come.

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