Russia’s Next Battlefield? Dutch Intel Points to Military Buildup in Baltics After Ukraine

Paris, France - Russia could be gearing up for a massive troop movement near NATO’s eastern borders within a year of a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine, Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans warned at a security conference in Baarn. Citing intelligence from the Netherlands' military services, Brekelmans painted a scenario where Russian President Vladimir Putin might deploy hundreds of thousands of troops near the Baltics under the guise of military exercises.

And if Ukraine’s experience has taught the world anything, he said, it's that the West would have “only one week’s notice” to figure out whether it's a drill or a prelude to war. This assessment raises the alarm even higher than previous European estimates.

European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius recently suggested Russia might test NATO’s Article 5 by 2030, citing German and Danish intelligence. But the Dutch warning suggests Putin’s next move could come much sooner, especially if Russia’s war in Ukraine winds down and frees up military resources. Denmark’s Defence Intelligence Service had already pointed out in a February report that if Russia is no longer bogged down in Ukraine, it could reconstitute enough forces to threaten the Baltic region within two years.

What’s Next After Ukraine?

Brekelmans made no secret of his views on Putin’s long-term strategy. He reminded his audience that the Russian leader has repeatedly talked about reversing the breakup of the Soviet Union and that the West should be under no illusion that Ukraine would be the last stop.

“We don’t know exactly how Putin will test NATO,” he said. “But we do know that if he attacks a NATO country, we’re all in it together. The Netherlands will have to help defend NATO territory.”

Right now, the Dutch military is actively contributing to NATO’s deterrence efforts. The Netherlands has troops stationed in Lithuania and F-35 fighter jets patrolling Baltic airspace from Estonia until the end of March.

But even as the Kremlin continues to suffer battlefield losses, Brekelmans warned against underestimating Russia’s ability to rebuild. He pointed out that the Russian economy has been completely restructured around war production and that the country is pumping out more weapons and recruiting more soldiers despite its heavy casualties.

“Putin has the intent, the capability, and the motivation to keep going beyond Ukraine,” he said.

The Silent War Already Underway

While much of the focus is on Russian tanks and troops, Brekelmans said the Netherlands is already dealing with a quieter, more insidious form of aggression.

“We’re not at war with Russia,” he said. “But Russia, in hybrid form, is already at war with us.”

He described a constant stream of cyberattacks, espionage, and sabotage attempts targeting Dutch infrastructure. Unidentified drones have been spotted near military bases, fishing boats have been caught photographing petrochemical plants, and Russian vessels have been mapping out critical undersea infrastructure—including internet cables, gas pipelines, and offshore wind farms.

Netherlands Ramps Up Military Buildup

With these threats in mind, the Dutch government is now moving to dramatically expand its military. The armed forces are set to grow from 74,000 to 100,000 within five years, with a long-term goal of reaching 200,000—the largest Dutch military buildup since the Cold War.

To make that expansion more flexible, about a third of the new personnel will be reservists, allowing for rapid scaling if needed. The move comes amid growing European concerns about U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump, and mounting pressure for the EU to take more responsibility for its own security.

A European military mission in Ukraine isn’t officially on the table—yet. But Brekelmans made it clear that his country isn’t waiting for the situation to explode before getting ready. “The key now is preparation,” he said. “We have to be ready for whatever comes next.”

With Russian troops still fighting in Ukraine and Western governments scrambling to shore up defences, the big question remains—will deterrence hold, or is Europe sleepwalking into its next big war?

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