Republic Double Exit Poll for Karnataka: BJP projected to secure almost twice as many seats as Congress-JD(S) alliance, CVoter and Jan Ki Baat concur

As the 39 days of a rousing elections officially comes to conclusion with the seventh and the last phase of voting on Sunday, the attention is now fixated on the result day on May 23 that will seal the fate of candidates in fray across thousands of polling booths in 542 constituencies in a country of over 900 million eligible voters. However, before the moment of truth that will determine the composite of the 17th Lok Sabha elections and from there the formation of a new Indian government, the Republic Media Network has broadcast India's biggest exit poll - the mega double exit poll in collaboration with the country's top pollsters Jan Ki Baat and CVoter. 

In tune with election fervour, Republic Media Network brings two mega polls after conducting a comprehensive survey across the country following each of the seven phases of the 2019 polls. The double Republic Exit Poll features a projection of how the seat-shares and vote-shares could turn out for each of the states and union territories of India, and put together, project whether the BJP and NDA will be able to retain their power and conversely, whether the Congress, UPA will be able to fight back after reaching a historic low in 2014. 

Karnataka Projections: 

The electoral battle in the southern state of Karnataka was spread across two phases in 28 Parliamentary seats that went to polls on April 18 and April 23. 

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in a triangular contest, the BJP secured 17 seats, Congress won 9 and JD(S) garnered 2. However, in 2019 arch rivals Congress-JD(S) united in agreement to fight on a 21-7 seat share formula respectively to give BJP a tough battle, however, their warring coalition became a significant focus of this political season. 

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Here are the predictions for Karnataka:

In a state with 18 seats up for grabs, the Congress is predicted to win 7 seats and their ally JD(S) projected to win 2 seats making that a total of 9 seats for the UPA, while the NDA is predicted to secure a double with 18 seats. However, the UPA vote-share is predicted to be larger with 49.3% compared to NDA's 48.3%. 

Compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress party is predicted to lose 

CVoter: 

Seat share projections

UPA: 9  
NDA: 18
IND: 1

CVoter vote-share projections

UPA-49.3%
NDA-48.3%
Others-2.4%

Jan Ki Baat

Seat-share range

NDA: 18-20 
UPA: 7-10
(Congress-7, JDS-2)
Other: 0-1

Total- 28

In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in a triangular contest, the BJP secured 17 seats, Congress won 9 and JD(S) garnered 2. However, in 2019 arch rivals Congress-JD(S) united in agreement to fight on a 21-7 seat share formula respectively to give BJP a tough battle, however, their warring coalition became a significant focus of this political season. 

On Saturday in an attempt to bridge the rift in Karnataka's shambling coalition the state's Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy asked the leaders of both alliance parties to restrain from making contentious statements since the coalition is attempting to form a new Central Government. He added these comments that may hamper their efforts to form a non-BJP government at the Centre

The key candidates that contested the elections included former PM H D Deve Gowda (Tumkur), his grandsons Prajwal Revanna from Hassan and Nikhil Kumaraswamy making his electoral debut from Mandya is in the fray with another debutant Sumalatha, a widow of Kannada actor-turned-politician M H Ambareesh.  Actor Prakash Raj contesting as an independent from Bengaluru Central, 28-year-old Tejasvi Surya contesting from Bengaluru South became the youngest candidate this election season.

READ| Republic Double Exit Poll For Uttar Pradesh: Jan Ki Baat Projects BJP Win With Over Half The State's Seats, CVoter Projects SP-BSP Mahagathbandhan Fightback, Congress To Lose

The political discourse of this election season ranged from cracks in coalition to astonishing communal and crass statements by leaders across parties, Azam Khan, Yogi Adityanath, Maneka Gandhi and others being struck down on by the Election Commission and others, like Sam Pitroda, Sadhvi Pragya and Kamal Haasan triggering mass outrage.

A number of Republic Media Network newsbreaks especially set the agenda for the polls, including PM Narendra Modi completing a full circle with his first and last election campaign interview with Republic Media Network. Alongside the sensational #MPsOnSale sting on sitting MPs who showed themselves willing to compromise the interests of those whom they claim to represent, the Operation Karz Maafi sting that exposed the falsehood in the Congress' farm loan-waiver promise, and numerous others.

The vote counting for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls will be held on May 23. Join Arnab on Republic Media Network for persistent coverage of the historic conclusion to the general elections here.