Manipur Election Opinion Poll 2022: BJP to edge Congress, projects P-Marq Jan 23-25 poll

Manipur is about to conduct its assembly elections in two phases along with four other states- Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and Punjab. The north-eastern state will undergo the first phase of elections on February 27 followed by the second phase on March 3. While the campaigning goes on at a frenetic pace, P-MARQ is conducting running opinion polls to present the most studied, accurate, and on-point predictions.

In the recent opinion poll conducted between January 23 and January 25, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), similar to the previous poll, seems to be ahead in the race for the assembly. The new data projects BJP bagging 29 -35 seats out of the 60 total seats with a 39.0% voting percentage. BJP is followed by the Indian National Congress (INC) which is predicted to win 13 - 19 seats with a 28.8% voting percentage.

It is worth mentioning that Chief Minister Biren Singh-led BJP was seen bagging more seats (31-37) in Manipur, according to the previous poll. The INC on the other hand remains stagnant with 13-19 seats, similar to previous predictions. The remaining parties such as the NPP and NPF which are in coalition with the BJP have made improvements as per the latest data. 

Methodology of opinion poll

The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share with an error margin of just 3%. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender, and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election.

Image: Republic World