Exclusive/ Captain Miller Box Office Prediction Day 1: Dhanush Starrer To Face Tough Competition From Ayalaan

Tamil star Dhanush is all set for the release of his period drama Captain Miller almost a year after his previous release Vaathi (2023). Even though the hype surrounding Captain Miller has been on the rise since its trailer was out, the action film will face tough competition at the box office with other Tamil titles -- Ayalaan, Mission Chapter 1 and Merry Christmas -- all scheduled for Pongal release. Republic reached out to trade experts to assess the box office prospects of Captain Miller and how the clash would affect its business. 

How much will Captain Miller earn on its opening day?

Dhanush starrer Captain Miller, set in the pre-independence day era, is reportedly made on a budget of ₹50 crore. While the film is on track to do well at the Tamil Nadu box office, the association of Kannada superstar Shiva Rajkumar, especially after his appearance in Rajinikanth's 2022 hit film Jailer has shot up the expectations from the film.

Trade experts believe Dhanush's Pongal release will open in the range of approximately ₹8 to ₹12 crore gross on day 1 in all languages in India.

"I think Dhanush will lead at the Tamil Nadu box surface and it will open in the range of approximately ₹8 to 12 crore gross on its day one," trade analyst Sumit Kadel said.

Ramesh Bala, another trade analyst, noted that, unlike the Telugu film industry, Tamil films solely depend on word-of-mouth. "Captain Miller will have an estimated earning of ₹10 crores on day 1," Bala shared.

How will the four-way clash impact Captain Miller at the box office?

According to trade experts, both Captain Miller and Sivakarthikeyan's sci-fi film Ayalaan have generated the same amount of buzz. Since both Dhanush and Sivakarthikeyan's pull among the Tamil audience is more or less equal, the collection could be in the same range. Meanwhile, two other films are releasing on the same day -- Merry Christmas starring Vijay Sethupathi and Katrina Kaif and Mission Chapter 1 starring Arun Vijay.

Talking about the clash of the films -- Captain Miller, Ayalaan, Mission Chapter 1 and Merry Christmas -- on the same day, Sumit Kadel said, "In the Tamil market, Captain Miller, Ayalaan and Merry Christmas are facing a clash. And it's quite obvious that Dhanush is a way bigger star in Tamil Nadu than Vijay Sethupathi and the star cast of Ayalaan. So I think that Dhanush will lead at the Tamil Nadu box office collections and will open in the range of approximately 8 to 12 crore gross on its first day."

He added, “Ayalaan will have an opening day collection of approximately ₹6 to ₹7 crores and Merry Christmas will open in the range of ₹1 to ₹2 crore.” Sumit noted that if both Captain Miller and Ayalaan will get a good response then it might impact the business of Merry Christmas' Tamil version substantially.

Ramesh Bala noted, "Captain Miller and Ayalaan have more or less similar buzz and hype. Dhanush and Sivakartikeyan also stand somewhere on the same ground in terms of stardom and hold on box office. Both the films are therefore expected to earn somewhere around ₹10 crores gross on day 1."

He added, "Unlike the Telugu industry, the opening day figures of Tamil movies depend a lot more on word of mouth even for day 1 collections. As reports start pouring in for Captain Miller and Ayalaan from morning and noon shows, that will immediately reflect in the live booking counters from evening onwards. These word-of-mouth reports will set the tone for both the films’ collections."

Bala also made mention of the other two Tamil films releasing on the same day and said, "There is another small film that will be impacted the most in this battle - which is Mission: Chapter 1. The actioner is expected to earn ₹2 crore at max. Meanwhile, Merry Christmas, which is also releasing in Tamil along with Hindi, is estimated to clock in ₹1 crore on day 1."

Ayalaan vs Captain Miller: Who will win at the box office?

According to Manobala, a film tracker, Captain Miller has an upper hand in terms of the number of screens. He said, "Captain Miller has got a good buzz and Ayalaan too is generating some buzz. Day 1 will be an advantage for Captain Miller compared to Ayalaan. The long-run winner will be dependent on good content. The screen Count for Captain Miller is higher compared to the former."

Meanwhile, Sumit Kadel said, "As far as screens and shows are concerned, Captain Miller will have an upper hand and it will get approximately 50 to 60 percent shows across multiplex and single screens and AyaIaan will get 30 to 40 percent and the rest will be given to Merry Christmas." It is to be noted that the film's opening day and lifetime collections depend on the number of screens given at the time of its release.