PMARQ Opinion Poll: BJP predicted to win UP & U'khand; close fight for Punjab

The assembly elections in Uttarakhand, Punjab and Goa will take place in a single phase while that Uttar Pradesh and Manipur Assembly elections shall be conducted in seven and two phases respectively. Ahead of the polls, P-Marq is bringing you the most studied, accurate, and on-point Opinion Poll on the big mini General Election of 2022 across the states of - Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa.

Methodology

The methodology is random stratified sampling using predominantly three techniques Field surveys, CATI, and IDIs with key people in districts and assembly constituencies. We then use a probabilistic model to determine the number of seats a party is going to win from the estimated vote share. The survey results have been adjusted in proportion to reflect the state and district population across age groups, religion, gender and caste. The questions in the survey were designed to reflect the current scenario electorally and politically and to gauge the critical factors that might play a role in this election. There is an error margin of 3%.

Uttar Pradesh opinion poll: Who will win

The Bharatiya Janata Party (and allies) is likely to emerge as the single largest party once against in Uttar Pradesh with 252-272 seats in the 2022 Assembly polls. However, the saffron will suffer a major seat loss as Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party and its allies may win 111-131 seats. The Bahujan Samaj Party's seat share is likely to reduce further as the Opinion Poll suggests only 8-16 seats for Mayawati's party. On the other hand, Congress may get 3-9 seats.

Uttarakhand opinion poll: Who will win

The Chief Minister Pushkar Singh Dhami-led BJP is likely to retain power with the party projected to win 36-42 seats in the 70-member Assembly. On the other hand, Congress is likely to see major gains. The grand old party is projected to win 25-31 seats, while debutant AAP can win 0-2 seats. The other parties and independents are likely to win 1-3 seats.

Punjab opinion poll: Who will win

Punjab may witness a hung assembly as Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party might win 50-56 seats, just short of the majority mark. The ruling Congress is predicted to win 42-48 seats while Shiromani Akali Dal can get 1-17 seats. BJP, who is fighting polls in alliance with Captain Amarinder Singh's Punjab Lok Congress and SAD (Sanyukt), can win 1-3 seats.  In the Opinion poll comes true, then AAP may consider an alliance with SAD and other shammer parties.

Manipur opinion poll: Who will win

The BJP is expected to stay ahead in the race as the poll shows the saffron party bagging the most 31-37 seats out of 60 seats followed by the Indian National Congress winning 13-19 seats. The National People’s Party (NPP) and the Naga People’s Front (NPF) remain behind INC with 2-9 and 1-5 seats respectively.

Goa opinion poll: Who will win

According to Republic P-MARQ Poll, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win 16-20 in the 40-member House. On the other hand, Indian National Congress, which was the single largest party in the 2017 assembly elections, is likely to get 9-13. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which went black in the last polls might win 4-8 seats. Debutant Trinamool Congress can get 1-5 seats. The majority mark is 21.

Elections for the 403 member Uttar Pradesh assembly will be held in seven phases starting February 10. The polling will be held on February 10, 14, 20, 23, 27 and March 3 and 7. Polling in Manipur will take place in two phases February 27 and March 3. Goa and Uttarakhand will go into the polls on February 14 while voting in Punjab is scheduled for February 20. The counting of votes for all the polls will take place on 10th March 2022.