With BJP declaring that it will not form the next government in Maharashtra on Sunday, the onus now lies on Shiv Sena - being the second-largest party in the state to form the next government. According to the poll results, Shiv Sena must ally with both NCP and Congress to form a government. The majority halfway mark in the house is 145.
Shiv Sena (56) + NCP (54) = 110 seats
Shiv Sena allying with NCP will see the alliance fall short of the halfway mark by 35 seats. While Sharad Pawar had initally ruled out an alliance with Shiv Sena, he has now stated that the final call will be taken by Congress senior leaders. Pawar has maintained that his party has been given the mandate for Opposition. NCP has also asked Shiv Sena to publically separate from the NDA at the Centre, resign from the Union portfolios and then it may discuss on CM post.
Shiv Sena (56) + NCP (54) + Congress (44) = 154 seats
Shiv Sena allying with the NCP and its ally Congress will see the alliance comfortably form a new government with the BJP in the Opposition. While the Shiv Sena MLAs have been holed up in a Mumbai resort, Sena Supremo Uddhav Thackeray has maintained that CM will be from Sena. Congress MLAs, on the other hand, are holed up in Rajasthan planning their next plan to ally with Sena or not. Many Congress MLAs have shown an inclination for the same.
Shiv Sena (56) + NCP (54) + smaller parties (16) + Independents (13) = 139 seats
In an unlikely scenario, if Shiv Sena allies with NCP and smaller parties like AIMIM, CPI, MNS, and the Independent MLAs, it will still fall short halfway mark by 6 seats. This option seems most unlikely as the smaller parties also include BJP allies. Some Independent MLAs have also pledged support to BJP.
Shiv Sena (56) + BJP (105) = 161 seats
While the saffron allies are in a deadlock now, they might ally back as the hold the strongest numbers, forming the next government. The major tiff between the two ideologically similar parties is for the 50-50 formula and sharing the CM post for 2.5 years each. BJP has refused to both, with the BJP willing to give Shiv Sena 13 cabinet portfolios and keeping 26 portfolios for itself. BJP has blamed Shiv Sena for disrespecting the mandate wishing the Sena luck to form the next government.
Mandate in Assembly elections was for MahaYuti consisting of BJP-ShivSena-RPI-RSP-ShivSangram.— भाजपा महाराष्ट्र (@BJP4Maharashtra) November 10, 2019
Since ShivSena not agreeing to Government formation, we have decided not to insult mandate given by people of Maharashtra and so decided not to form Government.
Our best wishes to ShivSena if they wish to form Government with Congress-NCP:— भाजपा महाराष्ट्र (@BJP4Maharashtra) November 10, 2019
- BJP State President Shri @ChDadaPatil 2/4