National Approval Ratings: Despite JD(S)-Congress ruling alliance in Karnataka, BJP projected to retain single-largest party tag

Roughly midway between this year's Assembly election and the upcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the political situation in the state of Karnataka presents a fascinating topic of study, with alliance dynamics highly fluid despite the fact that it is the leader of the third-biggest party in the state, JD(S)' Kumaraswamy, who is chief minister, in alliance with the second-largest party, the Congress, while the single-largest party BJP is in the Opposition.

Here is the National Approval Rating for Karnataka -- essentially, who would win if Lok Sabha polls were to be held at this point of time:

In terms of seat share, in the 28-seat state, the BJP is projected to remain the strongest party, even going on to better its 2014 share (17 seats) with 18 seats. Similarly, in line with the 2018 Assembly polls, the Congress is projected to remain the second largest party in Karnataka, both at the state and national level, by winning 7 seats. However, this projection entails a 2-seat drop in comparison with the Congress' performance of 9 seats in 2014. The JD(S), meanwhile, which hasn't finalised alliance plans for 2019, is projected to increase its lower house seat share from 2 in 2014 to 3, in the latest ratings.

Coming to voteshare, the BJP, which had a share of 43.1% of the votes in 2014, is projected to increase that percentage to 44.3, while the Congress' voteshare is projected to drop from 40.9% to 37.6%. The JD(S), may benefit at the Congress' expense, as its voteshare is projected to rise to 12.4% from 2014's 11%.

In comparison to last month's National Approval Ratings:

In terms of seat share, the projection reveals a status-quo over the space of a month, as all the parties have held firm. In terms of voteshare, however, the situation is different, as the BJP's projection is down from 46.5% to 44.3%, while the Congress is projected to have racked up minor gains, from 37.1% to 37.6%. The JD(S)' projection for voteshare has dropped from 13.4% to 12.4%.

Given the constant complaining by Karnataka CM Kumaraswamy regarding his alliance with the Congress, and the JD(S)' closeness with Mayawati who has distanced herself from Rahul Gandhi's party, there is no saying which way party supremo former PM Deve Gowda's pendulum will swing.