India would witness COVID third wave by August-end but less severe, says ICMR expert

India may witness the third wave of the covid pandemic by August-end, said an Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) expert adding that the severity of the deadly delta variant would be much lower compared to the second wave. "It's very important for each state to examine the state level epidemic and take a call like some of them might be in a situation where they have the very low intensity of the first and second wave but if the restrictions are not maintained now they then they might experience very hard the third wave. So if the third wave happens then it will hit around August-end or so but it's not inevitable," said Head of epidemiology and infectious diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research, Dr Samiran Panda.

Second wave is not yet over: Expert

"States need to look into their own novel coronavirus data and check, at which stage of the epidemic they are in. The third wave could happen around the end of August but it isn't inevitable. We need to be more careful," he added. The epidemiologist further added that the second wave of the pandemic is not yet over and there is variation in the cases of people having an asymptomatic infection. "When the third wave will come and how intense it could go are all questions that are related to many factors which are not known to the full extent. But what it is said the second wave is not over as yet and there are fluctuations in the reported number of symptomatic cases. We are talking about the fluctuation over 24 hours which certainly has to do with the test conducted and the reporting mechanism," Panda said. 

State should revisit their COVID data: ICMR expert

When asked about the states that are reporting the highest number of Covid cases, Panda said, "I could say that now the time is such that we shouldn't talk about a country as a whole because the epidemic is taking a very heterogeneous course in states, so each state looks into the state-specific data and try to see at which stage the epidemic they are in. So it's good to talk about the state-specific nature, analyze data and transmission and what is happening in terms of the population mixing and travel or the neglect of a Covid appropriate behaviour."

Further, he explained, "If we allow the virus to transmit then it will get transmitted if we were given the opportunity then the virus will spread, so, we have to be very careful because there is possible to win over this virus and there is also the possibility of also losing the chance of winning of the game."

(With inputs from agencies)

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