Karnataka Polls | Exit Poll Vs Opinion Poll: What is the difference & how is it important?

Voting for the Karnataka Assembly election is currently underway and will close at 6:00 pm this evening (May 10). The BJP will be seeking to script history by recapturing power in the southern state of Karnataka, where incumbents are frequently overthrown every five years. 

While the BJP is preparing a comeback in the southern state, the Congress hopes to wrest power from the saffron party. Following the announcement of the Karnataka elections, both parties have intensified their campaigns to win over voters. In Karnataka, both sides engaged in a variety of assaults and counterattacks, which intensified as the Bajrang Dal and the BJP's alleged "40%" corruption allegations gained centre stage. 

All eyes are now on the exit poll results since the polls are ending. One interpretation of the results may provide insight into the state of mind of Karnataka people. Exit Poll 2023 with a full analysis of each constituency will be issued only after 6 pm today, May 10, when voting in the southern state has concluded, in accordance with the instructions of the Election Commission of India (ECI).

What is an exit poll?

A survey based on interviews with voters after they cast their votes is known as an exit poll. Interviewers ask respondents about their polling in the various constituencies. After hearing what voters have to say, a potential election result in each constituency is determined. Although this is a good way to predict the results of a poll, it is often wrong because people don't always report their votes accurately.

How is Opinion poll different from exit poll?

Opinion polls are typically done before elections begin, and exit polls are conducted after voters cast their ballots. Here, the survey's focus is generally on getting respondents' predictions on who they think will win. Many individuals pay close attention to opinion polls since they reveal the public's sentiment before the poll. In contrast to exit polls, where participants have already cast their ballots, those surveyed may or may not agree to participate.

Additionally, since people frequently change their minds before elections, opinion polls cannot be taken at face value. Even a significant number of people participating in polls but choosing not to vote is a disadvantage in opinion polls. Exit polls also continue to have a significant flaw in the fact that some voters choose not to disclose their vote immediately after casting it. However, as they reveal significant information and occasionally influence voter behaviour, exit surveys and opinion polls both play a significant role in elections.