What Is The Way Forward In Tamil Nadu After The Madras High Court Verdict Upholding Disqualification Of 18 MLAs?

The much-awaited verdict comes as a huge relief, albeit temporarily, for the Tamil Nadu government. The verdict means that the strength of the assembly gets reduced to 213, bringing down the halfway mark to 107, two less than the number the EPS+OPS camp currently enjoys the favour of.

But this, by no measure, is the end of the road for TTV Dhinakaran. The maverick politician, who has been drawing huge crowds at his rallies across Tamil Nadu, will hope to repeat his personal performance in the RK Nagar by-polls in all 20 seats that will face elections.

The present AIADMK has its own battles to fight, with its public image has taken a beating, they would want to avoid elections, fearing a drubbing. The numbers will once again skew if they are unsuccessful in winning at least 8 seats, which, given the current voter sentiment, seems unlikely.

The DMK too is in a flux with the new party president MK Stalin facing antimony from his elder brother turned political nemesis MK Alagiri and his supporters especially in south Tamil Nadu. One of the seats vacated by the death of AIADMK MLA AK Bose, Tirupparankundram, is in Madurai district, the strong base of Alagiri. 

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The leadership of Stalin will be under scrutiny ahead of the by-polls as after the demise of DMK patriarch Karunanidhi, this is the first test for his younger son to prove his mettle. 

Post elections, in a scenario where AIADMK does not manage to get more than 8 seats, the odds will again be stacked against the ruling party and a trust vote moved by either the TTV faction or the DMK led opposition parties could full put the government in peril.

But that said, bringing down the government might not be in anyone's interest currently, DMK and Stalin will look to stabilise the party cadre to ensure they are behind the new party president strongly before facing polls.

TTV Dhinakaran still has a lot of ground to cover before he can challenge the might of the existing age-old parties. 

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The new high-profile political entrants- Rajinikanth and Kamal Hassan- while have managed to capture the media attention, are yet to formalise a structure for their party, an uphill task for both the giants of Tamil film industry in their newly chosen arena. Fans might not necessarily translate into voters and cadre and this is a reality the two superstars are very aware of.

And the AIADMK, given the precarious intra-party dynamics, losing popularity with the people of Tamil Nadu and a serious leadership crisis will look to enjoy their time in power and desist facing polls at any cost.

Keeping the government on tenterhooks will possibly be a permanent feature in Tamil Nadu politics over the next few years, even till assembly polls scheduled in. But delicately limping government might not be brought down. Not just yet.