Is Earth Safe? NASA Lowers Asteroid 2024 YR4's Impact Risk to Just 1.5%

NASA has announced that an asteroid named 2024 YR4, which was recently believed to have a 3.1% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, now has a significantly lower risk of just 1.5%. This comes after new observations helped scientists get a clearer view of the asteroid’s path.

The asteroid, estimated to be between 130 and 330 feet wide, was discovered last December. While the initial risk of it hitting Earth was worrying, it has now decreased as more data has been collected. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) still estimates the risk at 2.8%.

There’s also a smaller 0.8% chance that the asteroid could strike the Moon instead of Earth on December 22, 2032.

NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California has been closely monitoring the asteroid, which passes Earth every four years. The risk level had recently been raised to 3.1% as new data came in, but after further analysis, that number was reduced to 1.5%. NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies will continue to track the asteroid’s movements, and the probability of impact could change again as more observations are made.

The asteroid’s impact, if it were to strike Earth, could cause significant damage, especially if it hit a populated area. However, experts believe it wouldn’t cause global devastation like the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs millions of years ago.

The regions most at risk, if 2024 YR4 were to hit, include the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. But it’s important to note that the risk of this happening remains low.

This asteroid is just one of over 1.3 million asteroids tracked by NASA, and it is currently the only asteroid with a chance of impact above 1%. For now, experts remain hopeful that the asteroid will miss Earth, as more observations will help to refine the prediction.

NASA is also preparing to launch a mission in 2027 to help spot more asteroids and better protect Earth from potential impacts in the future. For now, the odds remain in our favor, with the asteroid expected to pass Earth safely again in 2028.