China COVID-19 wave: Beijing may witness death toll of 1.3 and 2.1 mn, predict analysts

China's relaxation of the stringent COVID-19 measures might end up in a death toll of 1.3 and 2.1 million, London-based global health intelligence and analytics firm predicted. If the Chinese administration scrapped its draconian zero-COVID policy millions are expected to die due to the contraction of the novel coronavirus due to the country's low vaccination and booster rates, and lack of hybrid immunity, Airfinity asserted in its analysis. 

"Mainland China has very low levels of immunity across its population. Its citizens were vaccinated with domestically produced jabs Sinovac and Sinopharm which have been proven to have significantly lower efficacy and provide less protection against infection and death," Airfinity's analysis stated. 

"As a result of these factors, our analysis shows if mainland China sees a similar wave to Hong Kong's in February, its healthcare system could be pushed to capacity as there could be between 167 and 279 million cases nationwide, which could lead to between 1.3 and 2.1 million deaths," it continued to add. 

Outbreak may spawn new mutations of virus, risk to world: US

China's zero-COVID strategy is aimed at controlling the spread of the respiratory disease as the Chinese population has almost no naturally acquired immunity from previously acquired infections, the global health intelligence firm stated. As China battles a fresh bout of mounting COVID-19 cases, the United States expressed concerns saying that a runaway outbreak might spawn new mutations of the virus that pose risk to the world that has returned to pre-COVID-19 normalcy. 

"When it comes to the current outbreak in China, we want to see this addressed," State Department spokesman Ned Price said in a briefing. "We know that anytime the virus is spreading in the wild that it has the potential to mutate and to pose a threat to people everywhere." 

China's top epidemiologist and health economist, Eric Feigl-Ding, said on Twitter that the country has been struggling to contain the massive uptick of COVID-19 and that the hospitals were nearly overwhelmed with mounting admissions and crematoria flooded with dead bodies.

The cases spiked after the Chinese government lifted the COVID-19 safety protocols that isolated an estimated 1.4 billion people to their homes. At Dongjiao Crematory operated by Beijing municipality and ordered to handle the COVID-19 deaths by the National Health Commission, almost 200-300 dead bodies are arriving each day. The death toll is hugely underreported. About one million people in China will die from COVID-19 over the next few months, according to first projections by scientists since mainland China lifted many of its strict ‘zero-COVID-19’ measures.