China records lowest birth rate since 1960 despite efforts to avoid demographic disaster

Despite substantial government efforts to stimulate population growth and avoid a demographic disaster, China's birth rate has fallen to its lowest level in six decades, with births barely outnumbering deaths in 2021. According to the national bureau of statistics, 10.62 million children were born in China in 2021, a rate of 7.52 per thousand people. During the same time period, 10.14 million people died, with a mortality rate of 7.18 per thousand, resulting in a population growth rate of only 0.34 per thousand people. 

The pace of growth is at its lowest level since 1960, and it confirms the findings of last May's once-a-decade census, which revealed an average annual rise of 0.53%, down from 0.57% between 2000 and 2010. Like much of the East Asian countries, China is also experiencing a population crisis, with falling birth rates and estimates of negative population growth and an ageing population. According to the latest data, China's proportion of over-60s increased from 18.7% in 2020 to 18.9% in 2021. 

Ageing population rate faster than expected: Expert

Zhiwei Zhang, the chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, stated that the demographic challenge is well-known but the rate of population ageing is certainly faster than anticipated. "This indicates that China's overall population may have peaked in 2021. It also suggests that China's potential growth is declining faster than expected," he stated as per The Guardian. To combat the decline, China has planned major reforms, including raising the retirement age. A three-child policy has taken the place of the two-child policy, which was implemented in 2016 and resulted in a small increase in the birth rate before decreasing again.

China vows to provide improved access to childcare and maternity leave

Young Chinese people's reluctance to have children is commonly attributed to high living costs, delayed marriages, and a lack of social mobility. In response, Beijing has put a ban on expensive private tuition, promising improved access to childcare and maternity leave. Prof. Wang Feng, an Asian demography expert at the University of California Irvine, said the statistics proved the core issues were deeper than policymakers realised, as per The Guardian. It should be mentioned here that China's economy could also be in jeopardy, with GDP statistics released alongside population estimates suggesting a sharp drop in the latter part of 2021.

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