Iran's Shifting Sands: The Intensifying Peril Surrounding Ayatollah Khamenei and the Contenders for Succession

New Delhi: Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is now facing growing pressure and seems more isolated than ever. He is at the centre of a tense and dangerous conflict, with rising threats to his rule and even his life.

In a recent interview with ABC News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that if Khamenei were eliminated, it could put an end to the long-running conflict between Israel and Iran. Just a day later, Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, gave an even stronger warning—saying Khamenei could face the same fate as Iraq’s former leader Saddam Hussein, according to a report by India Today.

In recent days, there has been more discussion about what might happen in Iran after Ayatollah Khamenei. This comes after reports that former US President Donald Trump had stopped an Israeli plan to kill the Iranian leader. In his interview, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu defended the plan, saying it wouldn’t make things worse—instead, he claimed it would actually help bring the conflict to an end.

Who Could Lead Iran Next?

1. One of the most likely people to take over is Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the current Supreme Leader. Born in 1969, Mojtaba has strong connections with both Iran’s powerful military group, the IRGC, and the country’s religious leaders. He fought in the last part of the Iran-Iraq war and is now a mid-level cleric who quietly holds a lot of power.
2. Another strong candidate is Alireza Arafi, a close and trusted supporter of Khamenei. He holds many important roles, such as deputy head of the Assembly of Experts, member of the Guardian Council, and Friday prayer leader in Qom. Because of his high-ranking positions and strong ties within Iran’s leadership, he is seen as a serious option to succeed Khamenei. Qom is a holy city in Iran, known as a major center for Shia Islam. It is home to many important religious schools and clerics, and plays a key role in the country’s religious and political life. Many future leaders of Iran, especially clerics, are trained in Qom.
3. Ali Asghar Hejazi is another possible successor. He handles political security matters in the Supreme Leader’s office and is known for working quietly behind the scenes. He has been part of Iran’s intelligence services for a long time and helps make important decisions for the country.
4. Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei is also seen as a possible next leader. He has worked for many years in Iran’s legal and intelligence systems. He was once the intelligence minister during President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s time and has held top legal positions like attorney general and spokesperson for the judiciary.
5. Other possible candidates include Mohammad Golpayegani, who has worked for a long time as the head of Khamenei’s office; former foreign ministers Ali Akbar Velayati and Kamal Kharazi; and former parliament speaker Ali Larijani. All of them are experienced leaders who have played important roles in running the country and dealing with international issues, especially in talks related to Iran’s nuclear program.

How Iran will choose its next Ayatollah

When Iran’s Supreme Leader dies, steps down, or becomes too unwell to continue, a special group called the Assembly of Experts is called in to choose the next leader. This group is made up of 88 senior religious scholars who are elected by the people, but only after being approved or vetted  by another powerful body known as the Guardian Council. Each member serves for eight years. When it's time to pick a new Supreme Leader, they hold a private meeting behind closed doors, where they secretly suggest names and vote. The process is kept very confidential, and the public is not given any details.

During their private meeting, the Assembly of Experts carefully reviews each candidate’s background. They look at the person’s religious knowledge, loyalty to the current political system, and ability to keep the government stable. To become the next Supreme Leader, a candidate must get at least 45 out of 88 votes. The members try to agree as much as possible on one name so that there are no major disagreements or power struggles, according to a report by India Today.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his leadership in Iran

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei became Iran’s Supreme Leader in 1989, taking over after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. For over 25 years, he has ruled the country with a firm grip. Khamenei holds the highest power in Iran—he controls the courts, the military, national media, and important government bodies like the Guardian Council and the Expediency Council. In Iran, what he says carries the force of law.

Khamenei has always been deeply suspicious of Western countries, especially the United States. He has often claimed that the US is trying to interfere in Iran’s affairs and wants to remove the current government from power.

Khamenei allowed Iran to talk with the United States after Donald Trump returned to office in January this year. However, on March 12, he gave a strong warning. He said that in any negotiation, it’s important to trust that the other side will keep their promises. If it’s clear they won’t, then there’s no use in talking. He added that sometimes offers to negotiate are just tricks to fool the public and make it seem like progress is being made, even when it’s not real.

Iran returned to the discussion table for talks about its nuclear program, and another round of negotiations was planned for June 15. However, things took a turn when Israel launched missile attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites just two days earlier, on June 13. Because of this sudden strike, the planned talks were disrupted and could not move forward.

June 2025 has once again raised concerns about the future of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—whether he will survive, especially as some of his close allies have already been killed in the ongoing conflict with Israel. This has also led to a bigger question: who will take over as the next leader if something happens to him?