‘Just Asking?’ Iran Drops A Big Hint On Next Global Trade Chokepoint After Hormuz
In a post on X, Iran Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf asked what share of global shipments of oil, LNG, wheat, rice and fertilisers passes through the Bab el-Mandeb, and which countries and companies depend most on it.
- World News
- 3 min read
In a move seen as a sharp escalation of its geopolitical messaging, Iran has signalled potential disruption beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf issuing a veiled warning over the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
In a post on X, Ghalibaf asked what share of global shipments of oil, LNG, wheat, rice and fertilisers passes through the Bab el-Mandeb, and which countries and companies depend most on it. But the remarks go far beyond a simple query.
“This is not a question, it’s a warning framed as a geography lesson,” a user commented to the post, interpreting the statement as a signal of Iran’s expanding leverage over global trade routes.
A Critical Global Artery
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow 18-mile-wide passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and onward to the Suez Canal, handles nearly 10% of global trade. It is a vital corridor for energy and food supplies, with 6–7 million barrels of oil transiting daily under normal conditions, alongside significant LNG flows from producers such as Qatar.
Advertisement
The strait is equally crucial for global food security, carrying roughly 12% of the world’s wheat trade, as well as large volumes of rice and fertilisers to markets across East Africa, South Asia, and Europe.
The ‘Relief Valve’ At Risk
The renewed focus on Bab el-Mandeb comes as alternative routes have gained importance due to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea pipeline network, terminating at Yanbu, has been acting as a key “relief valve,” allowing about 1.1 million barrels per day to bypass Hormuz disruptions.
Advertisement
However, oil transported via this route must still pass through Bab el-Mandeb to reach global markets, making the strait an equally critical vulnerability.
If both chokepoints are disrupted, the impact on global energy supplies could be severe, potentially pushing Middle Eastern export losses close to total levels.
Role Of Regional Proxies
Complicating the situation further is the involvement of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who control large parts of the western coastline overlooking the Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthis have already entered the conflict, carrying out coordinated strikes alongside Iran-backed forces and vowing continued escalation.
Their geographic position effectively gives Iran indirect leverage over the strait, creating a dual chokepoint scenario: Hormuz in the Persian Gulf and Bab el-Mandeb at the Red Sea’s southern entrance.
Global Stakes
Any disruption at Bab el-Mandeb would hit not just energy markets but also global supply chains, impacting shipments bound for Europe via the Suez Canal and essential food supplies to vulnerable regions.
Recent data already points to strain, with sharp declines reported in certain fuel exports amid partial disruptions around Hormuz.
By publicly highlighting the scale and dependence on Bab el-Mandeb, Ghalibaf’s remarks are widely seen as an attempt to map out the consequences of further escalation.