Yunus' Government: A Regime on Borrowed Time

Dhaka: Muhammad Yunus, the interim head of Bangladesh, is reportedly on the verge of resignation, citing an inability to function effectively amid a deepening political deadlock. In a meeting with his advisers, Yunus expressed frustration, stating, "What is the point of being the chief advisor if he cannot function properly?" Facing mounting pressure from various factions, criticism for delaying elections, accusations from Human Rights Watch of undermining freedoms, and a stern warning from the army, Yunus’ leadership is unraveling. As protest movements swell and external relations falter, Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture.

Protest Movements Erode Yunus’ Legitimacy

The Yunus-led interim government is grappling with widespread public dissent that has further eroded its legitimacy. Over 20,000 Islamist protesters, led by the Hefazat-e-Islam group, have taken to the streets to oppose a proposed bill aimed at granting rights to women, denouncing it as "un-Islamic" and calling for a boycott of the interim government. The Jatiya Olama Mashayekh Aemma Parishad has issued a chilling warning, threatening "severe consequences" if the government proceeds with the reforms, referencing the 45-minute window former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to flee a violent mob in August 2024. These protests, fueled by religious and political discontent, highlight the growing unrest under Yunus’ unelected administration, which lacks a public mandate or constitutional approval.

Army’s Ultimatum: Elections or Chaos

Adding to Yunus’ woes, the Bangladesh Army, led by General Waker-Uz-Zaman, has issued a clear ultimatum: hold free and fair elections by December 2025, or risk plunging the nation into chaos. General Zaman has warned that continued political infighting could jeopardize Bangladesh’s sovereignty, emphasizing that only an elected government can chart the nation’s future. His stance remains unwavering, as he has reiterated the need for polls to restore stability. The army’s push for elections underscores the fragility of Yunus’ position, as the military grows increasingly impatient with the interim government’s inability to unify the country.

Straining Ties with India: A Diplomatic Misstep

Yunus’ foreign policy miscalculations have compounded Bangladesh’s challenges, particularly his strained relationship with India. In an attempt to court Chinese investment, Yunus provocatively described India’s northeastern states, known as the Seven Sisters, as "landlocked" and positioned Bangladesh as the "only guardian of the ocean" in the region. This rhetoric has sparked backlash, with critics arguing it is both diplomatically reckless and economically harmful.

India, a crucial partner, has responded by imposing curbs on Bangladeshi exports via land ports, banning goods such as ready-made garments, fruits, carbonated drinks, and cotton products. These restrictions could cost Bangladesh $770 million, nearly 42% of its global export earnings, severely impacting the garment industry, which relies heavily on access to Indian ports. Yunus’ remarks also disregard India’s historical role in Bangladesh’s liberation in 1971, when over 3,000 Indian soldiers lost their lives, leading to the surrender of 93,000 Pakistani troops and the creation of Bangladesh as an independent state. Indian Home Minister Amit Shah recently reminded Bangladesh of the Border Security Force’s pivotal role in its liberation, urging gratitude for India’s sacrifices.

China: An Unreliable Partner

Yunus’ pivot toward China to offset tensions with India has proven misguided. In 2022, China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry pressured Bangladesh to distance itself from the United States, warning that alignment with the U.S. or its allies would harm Bangladesh’s interests. This heavy-handed approach angered many in Dhaka, who criticized China’s attempts to dictate the nation’s foreign policy. China’s history of prioritizing its own interests raises doubts about its reliability as an ally, leaving Bangladesh vulnerable as it seeks economic and political stability.

Conclusion: A Nation at a Crossroads

Yunus’ leadership is on the brink, undermined by domestic unrest, military pressure, and diplomatic missteps. The interim government’s lack of democratic legitimacy, coupled with growing protests and accusations of suppressing freedoms, has left it increasingly isolated. The army’s demand for elections by December 2025 serves as a critical deadline for Yunus to restore stability. Meanwhile, his strained relations with India and misplaced reliance on China threaten Bangladesh’s economic and geopolitical standing. To avert further chaos, Yunus must prioritize reconciliation with India, respect the sacrifices of 1971, and heed the call for democratic elections. Failure to act risks plunging Bangladesh into deeper turmoil, jeopardizing its sovereignty and future.