Pakistan continues to expand nuclear arsenal amid dire economic crisis: Report

Despite its dire economic circumstances, cash-strapped Pakistan continues to pursue its ambitions of expanding its nuclear arsenal. A recent research report by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists raises alarms about this development, stating, "Pakistan continues to gradually expand its nuclear arsenal with more warheads, more delivery systems, and a growing fissile material production industry."

Pakistan, a nation grappling with a severe economic downturn, is facing widespread protests driven by soaring fuel prices and exorbitant power bills. The situation has reached a critical point, with petrol prices reaching an all-time high of PKR 300 per litre, and many cities experiencing prolonged power outages.

Desperate for financial relief, Pakistan sought assistance from China and Gulf nations on multiple occasions. However, in a significant turn of events, Pakistan reluctantly agreed to stringent conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in exchange for a bailout.

The report labelled 'Pakistan Nuclear Weapons, 2023' further highlights concerning details: "Analysis of commercial satellite images of construction at Pakistani army garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be newer launchers and facilities that might be related to Pakistan's nuclear forces."

According to the report's estimates, Pakistan currently possesses a "nuclear weapons stockpile of approximately 170 warheads."

Key findings from the report include that Pakistan is currently producing sufficient fissile material to manufacture 14 to 27 new warheads annually. Nuclear-capable aircraft and air-delivered weapons are a part of Pakistan's arsenal, with Mirage III and Mirage V fighter squadrons likely to play a role, said the report.

According to the report, Pakistan maintains six operational nuclear-capable, solid-fuel, road-mobile ballistic missile systems, with two others under development. The report identifies at least five missile bases that could serve Pakistan's nuclear forces.

Where does Pakistan store all its nuclear warheads?

As outlined in the report, significant developments are underway at the fissile material production facilities in Kahuta and Gadwal, which appear to be nearing completion and are likely uranium enrichment plants. Additionally, the report points to the construction of four heavy-water plutonium production reactors, responsible for producing plutonium for Pakistan's nuclear weapons, at the Khushab complex, located approximately 33 kilometers south of Khushab in Punjab province.

Expansion efforts are also evident in satellite images of the New Labs Reprocessing plants situated at Nilore, east of Islamabad, and the Chashma complex, which is dedicated to reprocessing spent fuel and extracting plutonium.

Pakistan and China entered into a $4.8 billion Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to construct a 1,200-megawatt nuclear power plant, marking a significant investment by a country that Pakistan regards as its most dependable ally, according to a report in June.

In the Kala Chitta Dahr mountain range to the west of Islamabad, Pakistan is ramping up its efforts in the development of nuclear-capable missiles and their mobile launchers along both its western (where missile production and testing occur) and eastern (including a location north of Fateh Jung, where launcher assembly and firing operations are carried out) regions. To facilitate this, road-mobile transporter erector launchers (TELs) are deployed in the eastern section.

Satellite imagery reveals the presence of TEL chassis designed for a variety of ballistic and cruise missiles. As of June this year, TEL framework was observed for Nasr, Shaheen-IA ballistic missiles, and Babur cruise missiles.

(Pakistani missile TEL visible at expanded National Development Complex near Fateh Jang | Image: Maxar Technologies/ Federation of American Scientists)

The Fateh Jang area has witnessed significant expansion, with the construction of new facilities for launcher assembly over the past decade, and this expansion trend continues. The report also hints at the possibility of other launcher and production facilities being developed in the vicinity of Tarnawa and the Taxila region.

While public information regarding warhead production remains limited, experts have long speculated that the Pakistan Ordnance Factories, situated near Wah to the northwest of Islamabad, may play a pivotal role in this aspect. Among these factories, one is located near a unique facility featuring six earth-covered bunkers (igloos) within a multi-layered security perimeter, guarded by armed personnel.

Which aircraft & weapons are nuclear-capable? 

The aircraft most likely designated for a potential nuclear deployment role within Pakistan are the Mirage III and Mirage V fighter squadrons. These Mirage fighter bombers of the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) are stationed at two main bases - Masroor Air Base and Rafiqui Air Base.

Masroor Air Base, situated outside Karachi, houses the 32nd Wing, which accommodates three Mirage squadrons: the 7th Squadron ("Bandits"), the 8th Squadron ("Haiders"), and the 22nd Squadron ("Ghazis"). Notably, there are indications of a potential nuclear weapons inventory located approximately five kilometers northwest of the base. This area features heavily guarded underground facilities that may be designed to support a nuclear strike mission, including a possible alert hangar with underground weapons-handling capabilities.

Rafiqui Air Base, located near Shorkot, is home to the 34th Wing, hosting two Mirage squadrons: the 15th Squadron ("Cobras") and the 27th Squadron ("Zarras").

In March 2023, Pakistan reportedly introduced the first batch of 12 JF-17 Block III aircraft into the 16th Squadron ("Black Panthers").

(Image: Pakistan nuclear weapons, 2023 Report)

It's important to note that Pakistan's contractual agreement with the United States prohibits the modification of PAF's legacy F-16 aircraft to carry nuclear weapons. However, multiple reports suggest that Pakistan might have considered such modifications. The F-16A/B aircraft are stationed at Mushaf (formerly Sargodha) Air Base, located approximately 160 kilometers northwest of Lahore in northeastern Pakistan and fall under the jurisdiction of the 38th Wing.

The storage of nuclear gravity bombs intended for use during conflicts does not take place directly at the base. Instead, the report indicates that these bombs are likely to be housed at the Sargodha Weapons Storage Complex, situated approximately 10 kilometers to the south of the base.

Newer F-16C/D aircraft are stationed at Shahbaz Air Base, located outside Jacobabad in northern Pakistan, and fall under the purview of the 39th Wing. While some F-16s may also be observed at Minhas (Kamra) Air Base northwest of Islamabad, it's important to clarify that these may be related to the aircraft industry operations at the base.

Which airbases serve potential roles within Pakistan's nuclear forces?

Pakistan currently operates a roster of six operational solid-fuel, road-mobile ballistic missile systems with nuclear capabilities. These include the short-range Abdali (Hatf-2), Ghaznavi (Hatf-3), Shaheen-I/A (Hatf-4), Nasr (Hatf-9), as well as the medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5) and Shaheen-II (Hatf-6). Furthermore, Pakistan is actively engaged in the development of two other nuclear-capable ballistic missile systems, namely the medium-range Shaheen-III and the Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRVed) Ababeel.

(Image: Pakistan nuclear weapons, 2023 Report)

Analysis of satellite imagery reveals Pakistan's maintenance of at least five missile bases that potentially serve roles within Pakistan's nuclear forces. However, distinguishing between military installations primarily earmarked for conventional strike operations and those possessing dual-capabilities or specialised for nuclear strike roles poses a substantial challenge.

Arko Garrison

Situated around 145 kilometers from the Indian border, the Arko Garrison has witnessed gradual expansion since 2004. It comprises six missile Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) garages, seemingly designed to house at least twelve launchers. A distinctive underground facility is evident beneath the TEL garage complex, featuring two cross-shaped sections linked by a central corridor leading to two buildings on either side via covered access ramps. Notably, the northeast corner of the garrison reveals vehicle training areas housing five-axle TELs for the Babur cruise missile weapon system.

Gujranwala Garrison

Located approximately 60 kilometers from the Indian border, the Gujranwala Garrison ranks among Pakistan's largest military complexes. Satellite imagery depicts trucks strongly resembling the Nasr short-range missile system, a range that aligns with the garrison's proximity to the Indian border.

Khuzdar Garrison

Positioned farthest from the Indian border, the southern section of the Khuzdar Garrison expanded its perimeter in late 2017 to include three additional TEL garages, totaling six. Two multi-story weapon-handling buildings, complete with covered ramps leading to a potential underground nuclear storage area akin to that observed at the Akro Garrison, are part of this section.

Pano Aqil Garrison

In the northern part of Sindh Province, the Pano Aqil Garrison, just 85 kilometers from the Indian border, could potentially support around 50 TELs. However, some of these garage spaces are likely allocated for support vehicles. Commercial satellite imagery regularly captures numerous TELs, including those for Babur and Shaheen-I missiles.

Sargodha Garrison

Situated in the Kirana Hills, the Sargodha Garrison served as a nuclear development site for Pakistan between 1983 and 1990. Adjacent to a conventional munitions storage area, there are ten potential Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) garages and two maintenance garages. The layout of the TEL area differs from others across the country, possibly due to its age. East of the munitions area, an underground storage facility is integrated into the mountain, featuring at least ten entrances discernible through satellite imagery. Additionally, structures indicative of weapon and missile handling facilities are observable.

(Similar design of TEL areas at Gujranwala and Pano Aqil Garrisons | Image: Maxar Technologies/Federation of American Scientists)

Pakistan is actively advancing its family of ground- and sea-launched cruise missiles, such as the Babur (Hatf-7). This subsonic cruise missile, with dual capabilities, visually resembles the US Tomahawk, Chinese DH-10, and Russian AS-15 cruise missiles. As per the Pakistani government's claims, the Babur possesses "stealth capabilities," "pinpoint accuracy," and is characterised as a "low-altitude, terrain-hugging missile with high maneuverability." Significantly, the Babur's sleek design compared to Pakistan's ballistic missiles suggests progress in warhead miniaturisation through a boosted fission design, as indicated in the report.

Read the full report here:

Pakistan Nuclear Weapons, 2023 - Report by Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by Anmol Singla

The expansion of Pakistan's nuclear capabilities has not gone unnoticed on the international stage. In October 2022, US President Joe Biden had expressed deep concerns, labeling Pakistan as "one of the most dangerous nations in the world due to the lack of cohesion in its nuclear security and command and control procedures."

As Pakistan's economy struggles and its nuclear ambitions grow, the world watches closely, mindful of the potential implications of these developments for regional and global stability.