Recession the 'Likely Outcome,' says JP Morgan's CEO Jamie Dimon, as Trade War Escalates

In a stark warning, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday that a recession is now a “likely outcome” as President Trump’s sweeping tariffs continue to shake investor confidence and strain the global economy.

Speaking with Fox Business ’s Maria Bartiromo, Dimon acknowledged growing fears among financial leaders that the ongoing trade war—triggered by multiple rounds of tariffs from the Trump administration—is no longer just a political gamble but a serious economic threat.

Defaults expected to rise as financial pressure builds

Dimon also predicted a rise in corporate defaults as the economic pressure of the tariffs ripples through supply chains and dampens consumer demand. “We're going to see more defaults,” he said, pointing to signs of strain already visible in key sectors like manufacturing and agriculture.

His comments reflect a growing unease on Wall Street, where investors are grappling with wild market swings, falling stock prices, and uncertainty about the long-term effects of the trade war.

Market fears confirmed by Wall Street heavyweight

While markets have been jittery for weeks, Dimon’s blunt forecast put a high-profile voice behind a fear that’s been lurking in the background—Trump’s aggressive trade policies may have already set in motion a prolonged global downturn.

Dimon's remarks are particularly significant given JPMorgan’s position as the largest bank in the United States and a key player in global finance.

Backdrop: Trump’s tariffs reshape the global economy

President Trump has doubled down on tariffs in recent weeks, with the U.S. now imposing steep levies on hundreds of billions of dollars' worth of imports. China and other trading partners have retaliated, creating a tit-for-tat spiral that many fear could tip the world into a new economic crisis.

The bottom line

With recession now being openly discussed by one of the most influential figures in finance, pressure is likely to grow on the Trump administration to reassess its trade strategy. For now, markets remain volatile—and Dimon’s prediction suggests the worst may still lie ahead.