High hopes for COP 27, but warnings of disappointment

When world leaders, diplomats, campaigners and scientists descend on Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt next week for talks on tackling climate change, don't expect them to part the Red Sea or other miracles that would make huge steps in curbing global warming.

Each year there are high hopes for the two-week United Nations climate gathering and, almost inevitably, disappointment when it doesn't deliver another landmark pact like the one agreed 2015 in Paris.

But those were different days, marked by a spirit of cooperation between the world's two biggest polluters — the United States and China — as well as a global realization that failure to reach an agreement would put humanity on a self-chosen track to oblivion.

This November the geopolitical tiles have shifted: A devastating war in Ukraine, skyrocketing energy and food prices, and growing enmity between the West on the one hand and Russia and China on the other make for difficult conditions at a gathering that requires cooperation and consensus.

Scientists are more concerned about global warming than three decades ago, when governments first came together to discuss the problem because the pace of warming in the past decade is 33% faster than in the 1990s.

Greenhouse gas emissions are still rising, while tangible impacts from climate change are already being felt around the world.

But there is some progress. Before Paris, the world was heading for 4.5 degrees Celsius (8.1 Fahrenheit) of warming by the end of the century compared to pre-industrial times.

Recent forecasts have that down to 2.6 C (4.7 F), thanks to measures taken or firm commitments governments have already made. That's far above the 1.5 C (2.7 F) limit countries agreed to seven years ago, however, and the time for keeping that target is fast running out.

Researchers say the world has already warmed by 1.2 C (2.2F) and capping temperatures at 1.5 C would require emissions to drop by 43% by the end of the decade, a highly ambitious goal. To get to the less ambitious 2 C (3.6 F) goal emissions have to fall 27%.

Prices for oil, coal and natural gas have jumped since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Some countries have responded by trying to tap new sources of fossil fuel.

This has raised concerns about governments backsliding on their commitments to cut emissions, including the agreement at last year's climate talks to "phase down" the use of coal and sharply reduce the amount of methane — a powerful greenhouse gas — released into the atmosphere.

At the same time, rising fossil fuel prices have made renewable energy more competitive. Building solar and wind power plants remains more expensive for developing countries though. To help them cut their emissions quickly, rich nations are negotiating aid projects known as 'just transition energy partnerships', or JET-Ps, with several major emerging economies including Indonesia and India that could be finalized during or shortly after COP27.

Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg is not coming to this year's gathering and recently called the U.N. process a "scam."

Other activists have also voiced frustration at the slow pace of negotiations, given the scale of the threat posed by climate change.

The gathering in Egypt will be the first time since 2016 that U.N. climate talks have taken place in Africa. Experts say it is important the continent gets more attention, given how heavily it is affected by rising temperatures.

Campaigners say that recognizing the challenges Africa faces and prioritizing the needs of vulnerable countries is essential for a successful outcome this year.