Trump Hails Drop in Inflation as CPI Falls

U.S. President Donald Trump took to Truth Social on Thursday to write - “Just out: ‘INFLATION IS DOWN!!!’”

His post came shortly after new data showed that inflation in March cooled more than expected, offering some relief after months of concerns that price increases were picking up again.

Inflation Slows More Than Expected

According to US government data released Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.1% in March, marking the softest monthly reading since July 2022. Over the past year, prices rose 2.4%, a noticeable dip from February’s 2.8% increase.

Core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy costs and is closely watched by policymakers — rose only 0.1% for the month. On an annual basis, core inflation fell to 2.8%, down from 3.1% in February.

The decline was largely driven by falling energy prices and slower increases in other categories, offering hope that inflation may be easing in a sustainable way.

Cloud of Trade War Still Hangs Over Prices

Despite the encouraging inflation numbers, concerns remain. The report lands as Trump escalates his global trade offensive. A 10% base tariff on all imports went into effect recently, alongside a much steeper 125% tariff on goods from China.

While the immediate inflation data looks positive, some economists warn that these new trade measures could raise prices in the coming months, particularly for imported consumer goods.

Trump did backtrack on some of his broader tariff plans this week, pausing hikes on imports from several nations. Still, tensions remain high, and the potential for price volatility isn’t off the table.

Fed Officials Welcome the Cooldown — Cautiously

The latest numbers will likely be welcomed by the Federal Reserve, which has been walking a tightrope between curbing inflation and keeping the economy growing.

But central bank officials are expected to remain cautious. Economic signals are mixed — with some signs of slowing growth — and the full impact of the tariff hikes may not be felt immediately.

Trump is celebrating a cooling inflation report, but the road ahead remains uncertain. With a global trade war in motion and tariffs likely to put pressure on prices, the economic picture may shift again before long.