Will Iran-US go to war? Here's a brief timeline of the events leading up to the crisis

The standoff between the United States and Iran took an acute turn in the past 10 days, thus escalating the apprehensions of a conceivable military confrontation between the two. 

While both the leaders, US President Trump and President of Iran Hassan Rouhani, amid hostility, have maintained that they don't want a war, the timeline of events have indicated otherwise. 
 
Here is the timeline of crucial events that spiraled the US-Iran tensions: 

May 2018

The events date back to 2018 when Trump pulled out of the crucial Iran nuclear-deal or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on May 8, that was signed, as a notable deal during former US President Barack Obama's era. 

Following the decision, Trump faced criticism for his actions, even from his allies. However, despite the US backing off, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, Germany, China, and Iran maintained their regard for the agreement. 

On May 21, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo proffered 12 demands of the Trump administration for a reformed nuclear deal to Iran. 

The extensive list of demands included discontinuing their support to "terrorist" groups in the Middle East including Hamas and Hezbollah, releasing the citizens of US and allies, withdrawing pro-Iranian forces from Syria, political settlement in Yemen and so on. 

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August 2018

The Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran in an attempt to squeeze their oil and banking sector economy, which were previously lifted as a part of the Obama-era significant nuclear deal.

April 2019 

Following that, months later, first, the US designated Iran's military force- the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terror organisation, and in retaliation to which Iran did the same with the US military. 

May 2019

From August to May, the Trump administration had waived off a few countries from the sanctions imposed, permitting them to import oil from Iran, however, on May 2 the waivers were laid off, to quiver the Iranian economy. Denouncing the sanctions in the sternest words, Iran accused the US of 'economic terrorism.'

In this case, if countries importing oil from Iran- India, Japan, and China, fail to adhere to these sanctions, could also in response, face the threat of US sanctions.

After being pushed by the United States, Iran indicated that it would take a U-turn from some aspects of the nuclear deal and exceed the limits of the nuclear deal. The Iranian President Rouhani asserted that countries part of the treaty, need to help retrench the US sanctions, or else, Iran would start enriching low-uranium beyond the conformed agreement, thus pushing the country a little closer to acquiring a nuclear bomb, with the intention to build pressure on the European countries (UK, Germany, France) 

On May 24, Washington deployed 1,500 troops to the Middle East. 

June 2019

Marked as a crucial element in the crisis, on June 13, two commercial oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most significant oil artery, which consequently led to global fluster and soaring of oil prices. Out of the two tankers, one Norwegian owned Front Altair, and the second, Kokuka Courageous was owned by Japan. This was the second attack on commercial tankers, after striking four tankers back in May 2019. 

Within a day, the US state secretary accused Iran of the attack and backed it up with a grainy video of the incident. However, Iran retaliating to the claim called it 'ridiculous and dangerous' 

On June 17, with a countdown of 10 days for the limit set by Tehran, the pressure was build on European countries to help ease economic sanctions. Further stated that if the European countries intervene, Iran would abide by the nuclear deal. 

On the same day, sending a strong message to Iran, Washington deployed another 1000 military forces in the Middle East.  

Days ago, on June 20, the friction between the two nations intensified after Iranian forces shot down a US surveillance drone. Both countries confirmed the incident. 

However, Tehran maintained that military equipment violated their airspace and that they had warned the US twice before shooting down, while the US stood on the ground by saying that the drone was above international waters, and  Trump called it a 'very bad mistake' by Iran. 

During the entire episode, the Twitter of US President spoke volumes of the standoff, wherein he explicitly announced that he rescinded the strike 10 minutes before attacking Iran, to retaliate for the downing of the drone.

READ| After Iran Shoots Down American Spy Drone, US President Donald Trump Tweets Saying, "Iran Made A Very Big Mistake"

Reasoning the decisive part he said that the strike would not have been 'proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone'

The Iranian Ministry had stated that Tehran, "responds to diplomacy with diplomacy ... war with firm defence." 

In a recent update, the US has imposed new sanctions on Iran that is said to block assets in billions. 

The sanctions targetted Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and eight top military officials. In retaliation to which, Iran responded saying that this move has permanently closed the 'path of diplomacy' between the two countries. 

Following the sanctions, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the politicians close to US president 'despire diplomacy' and are 'thirsty for war'

At the threshold of this relationship, Rouhani called the White House sanctions to be 'mentally retarded' adding that the 'strategic patience' of Tehran must not be treated as 'fear'

Global reaction

In the entire story between Iran-US, the Middle East staunch ally of the Trump administration and regional enemy of Iran, Saudi Arabia will play a crucial role. 

Meanwhile, the world leaders have urged for de-escalation. Russia has accused the US of provoking and stoking tensions by pushing it to 'the brink of war' and concluded that the US drone was shot in the Iranian airspace according to their military intelligence, explicitly displaying their stand in the conflict. 

In the meantime, the growing angst that Iraq would be pulled in the war between two allies, protests emerged in Baghdad urging politicians from keeping distance from the on-going impasse, as the Iraqi government positions itself as a mediator.

Meanwhile, on June 24, Pompeo asked their Middle Eastern allies Saudi Arabia and UAE to enforce their surveillance against Iran.

While political analysts have lauded Trump's decision to back off and that US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo and US National Security Advisor John Bolton should share the blame for the current scenario. 

It is also believed that Trump's decision to back off comes after Iran's response to US aggression would be "relentless and disproportionate." 

However, this is also considered as an Iranian ruse to urge US to diffuse the US Sanctions. 

But the fact that Trump already has been campaigning for Presidential election 2020, waging another war in the Middle East is unlikely.