Europe’s Carmakers Look To Overturn 2035 Combustion Engine Ban

Europe's embattled carmakers are hoping for a reprieve when Brussels unveils an auto sector package on Tuesday, which could water down an effective ban on new combustion engines initially slated for 2035 as a shift towards electric engines stutters.

The continent's automakers from Volkswagen to Renault had high hopes for the electric vehicle shift when they set ambitious targets at the beginning of the decade, efforts that have since collided with the reality of lower-than-expected demand and fierce competition from China.

What is expected on December 16?

Brussels is set to unveil measures designed to support the regional auto industry, one of the EU's most important sectors, in the face of high energy costs, tariffs on exports to the US, and Asian rivals eating into the bloc's market.

Senior EU lawmaker Manfred Weber, president of the largest party in the European Parliament, the EPP, said on December 12 that the European Commission would move to scrap plans for an effective ban on new combustion engine cars from 2035.

German automakers and the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association have called for a weakening of rules designed to boost battery or fuel-cell electric drive cars, while Fiat-to-Maserati owner Stellantis has warned the industry risks an "irreversible decline" without help. The regulation that all new vehicles from 2035 should have zero emissions was adopted in March 2023, when the outlook for battery electric vehicles was brighter. The industry is now pushing for concessions.

It hopes the European Commission will accept that CO2-neutral fuels, such as biofuels, could continue to power internal combustion engines, as well as plug-in hybrids or range extenders. Automakers, including Europe's biggest Volkswagen, have argued that immovable targets no longer make sense, and that the market, rather than legislators, should decide when combustion engines are fully phased out. They favour instead incentives to boost demand for electric vehicles.

How it started vs how it is going?

Automaker Initial 2030 Current Ambition Battery Ambition Electric Vehicle share of total, 2025 (9 months).

• Volkswagen - Six battery - Plans three 10.9 per cent Group factories in battery cell Europe alone factories in by 2030, 240 Europe and North gigawatt hours America, with of capacity maximum capacity - At least 70 per cent of 200 GWh of deliveries - No firm in Europe forecast or EV expected to be sales target fully electric by 2030
• Porsche - More than - No specific EV 23.1 per cent 80 per cent of sales target deliveries to be fully electric by 2030
• BMW - Targets 50 per cent - Remains 18 per cent of global committed to 50 per cent sales to be target, fully electric dependent on by 2030 market - Interim conditions goal:
• 25 per cent BEV - 2025 BEV share by 2025 at the 2024 level (17.4 per cent)
• Mercedes-Benz Group - 100 per cent EV - Expects at 8.8 per cent Group sales by 2030 least 50 per cent where market electrified conditions (including allow hybrids) by 2030 - Interim: 50 per cent - Will keep electrified combustion (mostly EV) by engines well into 2025 and the 2030s
• Renault - 100 per cent - Targets 100 per cent 12.7 per cent Group electric as BEV share in early as 2030 2035
• Stellantis - Global BEV - Stellantis is 11.1 per cent in sales of five expected to Europe million units review goals in in 2030, Q2 2026 as part reaching 100 per cent of new business of passenger plan car sales in - Group no Europe and 50 per cent longer pursues passenger cars goal of and light-duty producing only trucks in the electric United States vehicles in Europe by 2030, former head of Europe said in September
• Volvo Cars - To sell - Aims for 90- 20 per cent purely 100 per cent of its battery-powered global sales vehicles volume by 2030 from 2030 to consist of onwards electrified cars, meaning mix of both fully electric and plug-in hybrid models

Where did it all go wrong?

Demand is rising for EVs in Europe, but not at the pace carmakers had once planned for, with ACEA's data showing a market share of 16 per cent for battery electric vehicles in the first 10 months of the year, up from 13 per cent a year before. Charging anxiety remains an issue for consumers, with central and eastern Europe behind on infrastructure, while high electricity costs are a concern in Germany. 

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