Adani Green Energy Share Price Target: Brokerage Says ‘Buy’ - Here’s Why

Emkay Global has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) with a current market price (CMP) of Rs 922 and a target price (TP) of Rs 1,500, buoyed by a robust performance in the fourth quarter of FY25.

The brokerage firm reported that AGEL’s consolidated EBITDA surged 31% year-on-year (YoY) to $ 24 billion, marking a 28% jump quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).

This growth was attributed to a 30% YoY increase in operational capacity and improved capacity utilization factor (CUF), particularly from the Khavda project which achieved a CUF of 32% in Q4.

Adani Green Energy Q4 Results FY25
Adani Green’s Q4 consolidated revenue stood at $30.7 billion, up 22% YoY and 31% QoQ.

Notably, core power supply revenue rose 37% YoY and 34% QoQ to $26.7 billion, driven by enhanced CUFs and effective capacity additions. The share of merchant and infirm power increased to 33% from 28% in the previous quarter. Book realization also edged up marginally to ₹3.4/kWh in Q4.

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Capacity and Future Guidance
AGEL closed FY25 with 14.2 GW in total installed capacity, and aims to add 5 GW in FY26, with 1 GW slated for commissioning within a month.

Despite rains impacting the Khavda project and slowing FY25 capacity addition to 3.3 GW, the long-term growth trajectory remains intact. The management shared that AGEL has already added 4 GW in Khavda and another 1 GW in Rajasthan in FY25.

Going forward, Adani Green targets a 75% PPA + hybrid portfolio and 25% merchant and C&I mix, with a vision to reach 50 GW total capacity by 2030, including 30 GW from the Khavda region.

The company secured 6.5 GW in PPAs and 9.6 GW in letters of award (LoAs) during FY25, and now holds nearly 30 GW in PPA LoAs and 3 GW in merchant capacity.

Debt, Capex, and Valuation Outlook
Emkay noted that net debt rose 37% YoY to $729 billion due to $248 billion in capex during FY25. Despite this, FY25 EBITDA and APAT slightly outperformed estimates, prompting Emkay to maintain its TP of Rs 1,500.

Adani Green Energy Share Price Target 
“We retain our assumptions and earnings estimates, along with our TP at Rs 1,500; maintain BUY,” Emkay stated, highlighting the company’s expected 30–50% CAGR in revenue and earnings.

Valuation and Risks
Emkay values AGEL at 13x FY31E EV/EBITDA, discounted at 15% to March 2026. The report flags key risks including execution delays, policy changes, technology disruption, equipment cost inflation, and resource yield variability. However, the expiry of the ISTS waiver is expected to unlock additional value.

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