Emkay: IndiGo Takes Over Skies As 14.5 Mn Indians Fly In March—Here’s What’s Driving The Surge

India’s domestic aviation market witnessed robust growth in March 2025, with passenger volumes rising 9% year-on-year to 14.5 million, according to brokerage firm Emkay Global.

For the full fiscal year (FY25), adjusted for calendar days, passenger traffic rose 8% YoY to 165.4 million compared to 153.7 million in FY24. Early April data also points to steady growth, with daily trends suggesting an ~11% YoY increase.

IndiGo Tightens Grip on Market Share
IndiGo remained firmly in control of the domestic skies, expanding its market share by 30 basis points (bps) month-on-month (MoM) to 64% in March 2025. Akasa Air also gained, inching up by 30bps to 5%. In contrast, the Air India group saw its share slip by 60bps to 26.7%. SpiceJet saw a marginal improvement, gaining 10bps to reach 3.3%.
Together, IndiGo and the Air India group accounted for around 91% of the domestic passenger market.

Load Factors Dip, But Flight Punctuality Sees a Boost
Despite the strong growth in passenger numbers, load factors (PLFs) declined across key carriers. IndiGo reported the steepest monthly drop of 710bps, bringing its PLF down to 84.6%. Air India group and SpiceJet followed with 660bps and 640bps declines, resulting in PLFs of 80.6% and 84.8%, respectively. Akasa was the least impacted, with a 260bps MoM dip, maintaining the highest PLF at 92.5%.
 

However, punctuality improved notably. IndiGo led with an on-time performance (OTP) of 88.1%, followed by Akasa at 86.9%. The Air India group improved significantly to 82.0% from 73.4% MoM. SpiceJet trailed with the lowest OTP at 72.1%.
 

Read More 
IndiGo Stocks Takes Off to Record Highs as Oil Prices Dip, Market Winds Turn Favourable

Cancellations also declined across the board. SpiceJet, though still the highest at 1.09%, improved from 1.42% MoM. IndiGo (0.31%) and Air India group (0.15%) held steady, while Akasa reported the lowest at 0.02%.

Fuel Prices Fall as Crude Oil Slumps
Airlines received additional relief as Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices fell 6% MoM to Rs 89.4 per litre in Delhi for April 2025. Emkay noted, “ PSU OMCs have lowered domestic ATF prices... implying further ATF price cut.”

Brent crude is currently trading near $65/barrel, and May is expected to bring another ~5% cut in ATF prices, thanks to a 5% drop in crude and a 7% dip in jet fuel spreads, aided by an appreciating rupee.